Newspoll: Fumbling Albanese takes a knock but Labor still ahead

Anthony Albanese has suffered a fall in his approval ratings, with popular support for Labor also dropping with one week to go.

Anthony Albanese with, from left, Katy Gallagher, Terri Butler and Leichhardt candidate Elida Faith at Fitzroy Island. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

Anthony Albanese has suffered a fall in his approval ratings following gaffes over the NDIS and economic concerns over his support for a 5.1 per cent rise to the minimum wage, with popular support for Labor also dropping with one week to go before the election.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted ahead of Scott Morrison’s campaign launch on Sunday shows the primary vote contest tightening over the past week, but Labor still leading comfortably with a two-party-preferred lead of 54 to 46.

While the Coalition’s primary vote remains at a low 35 per cent, Labor’s has fallen back a point to 38 per cent, suggesting momentum for Mr Albanese may have stalled in the final weeks of the campaign.

The only party to make gains was Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, which rose a point to 6 per cent. This is almost double the level of support for the conservative minor party at the 2019 election. Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party fell a point to 3 per cent, despite an estimated $100m advertising budget. The Greens remained on 11 per cent, consistent with their result at the last election, while the vote for ­independents and other minor parties rose a point to 7 per cent.

With the total vote for minor parties and independents at 27 per cent, the poll confirms that the May 21 election may be the first in which both of the major parties fail to secure a primary vote in the 40s. The level of uncommitted voters fell a point to 5 per cent.

In the head-to-head contest, Mr Morrison leads his rival as the better prime minister 43 per cent to 42 per cent, after dropping a point on the previous survey.

This margin has narrowed over the course of the campaign, with Mr Morrison enjoying a nine-point lead over Mr Albanese in mid to late April.

The most significant movement in the penultimate election Newspoll, however, shows the Labor leader taking a hit to his ­satisfaction ratings over the past week. Mr Albanese’s approval dropped three points to 38 per cent while those dissatisfied with his performance as Opposition Leader rose two points to 49 per cent. This produced a five-point turnaround in his approval ratings to minus 11. The dip in approval mirrors that suffered by Mr Albanese in the first week of the campaign following a series of gaffes, including his inability to nominate the unemployment rate and the official cash rate.

The poll period covers a week in which Mr Albanese faltered over Labor’s key social policy, the NDIS, when he was unable to provide the six-point reform plan when asked at a press conference.

It also covers the more recent campaign stumble over the minimum wage when Mr Albanese courted controversy by suggesting Labor would make a submission to the Fair Work Commission for a 5.1 per cent rise.

Mr Morrison’s approval ratings, in contrast, improved three points, with a one-point rise in those satisfied with his performance as Prime Minister and a two-point fall in those dissatisfied. He is now level with Mr Albanese on minus 11, confirming that a majority of voters are unimpressed with the performance of either leader.

Mr Albanese was forced to clarify his position on wages after economists warned a 5.1 per cent increase to the minimum wage could add to inflation.

The Australian’s YouGov poll of the 151 seats in the House of Representatives published this week showed Labor on track to win 80 seats, with the Coalition on 63 and a crossbench of eight – including one Green and two newly elected Climate 200 candidates. The latest Newspoll was conducted between May 10 and May 13 and surveyed 1532 people across the country.