Election 2022: Everything on line for Scott Morrison in last-ditch effort

Scott Morrison tours Punt Road Winery in the Yarra Valley on Friday. Picture: Jason Edwards

For Scott Morrison, everything now hinges on Sunday’s official campaign launch.

He will need to seize the moment, with the possibility that momentum for the Labor push may have stalled.

The penultimate Newspoll of the election campaign shows Anthony Albanese suffering a fall in his approval ratings right at the worst possible time for an opposition leader.

Labor’s primary vote has also dropped back a point after having risen steadily throughout the campaign.

There is no doubt that the Labor leader’s two significant gaffes of the past 10 days have had an impact, even if only minimal at this stage.

The question for Labor is whether this represents the beginning of a snap back as voters face the reality of the choice they have to make.

For Morrison the question is whether it is too little too late, with a lot of people having voted already.

The challenge all along for Morrison has to been to convert concerns over Albanese into votes for Coalition. Clearly this hasn’t happened yet.

Among Coalition voters, 82 per cent are satisfied with the prime minister’s performance. Among Labor voters, only 65 per cent are satisfied with Albanese.

While this suggest a lot of people aren’t happy with him, it doesn’t mean they aren’t going to vote for him.

The Coalition primary vote remains stubbornly low at 35 per cent. It needs to peg back at least four points on its primary vote to snatch victory at the finishing line.

This is made all the more difficult with Morrison’s approval ratings no better than his rival’s, which suggests it is now a virtual dead heat on electoral disappointment.

For this reason, Sunday’s campaign launch has become the pivotal moment on which Morrison’s hopes may rise or fall.