Newspoll: Coalition fails to land inflation punch leaving economic credentials in doubt

Newspoll findings suggest Peter Dutton’s argument that he would have better managed the cost-of-living crisis is failing to resonate with voters.

The latest Newspoll has tested a key plank of the Coalition’s claim to better economic ­management.

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Less than a quarter of voters ­believe that inflation would have been lower under a Coalition ­government, suggesting Peter Dutton’s argument that he would have better managed the cost-of-living crisis is failing to resonate in the community.

An exclusive Newspoll, conducted for The Australian, that tests a key plank of the Coalition’s claim to better economic ­management, shows the number of people who believe that inflation would have been higher under the Coalition has risen over the past six months.

However, the percentage who believed it would not have made any ­difference has dropped 10 points to 31 per cent since the question was first asked in August last year.

The poll suggests that more voters than not are willing to ­accept the government’s argument that the inflation crisis was heavily influenced by global ­factors, despite the central bank warning previously of homegrown inflation.

The trend in voter perception aligns with economic data that shows a contraction in the growth of headline inflation since the end of last year, largely as a result of the Albanese government’s ­energy subsidies to households.

The Reserve Bank will meet on Tuesday with markets predicting the first cut in interest rates in four years despite core inflation still ­remaining outside the RBA’s target band.

The Newspoll shows that the majority of voters aren’t buying the Coalition’s argument that it would have brought down ­inflation sooner had it won the last election.

This challenges the ­accepted wisdom that suggest the Coalition has a significant ­advantage over Labor when it comes to voter perceptions of economic management.

When asked last August about inflation under a Coalition government, 24 per cent of voters said it would have been lower. This ­remained unchanged in the latest poll.

However, the percentage of respondents who said it would have been higher under the Dutton government rose from 18 per cent six months ago to 25 per cent.

Anthony Albanese. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

There was a 10-point fall in those who believed it would not have made any difference, from 41 per cent last August to 31 per cent in the latest poll.

Those who claim not to know rose from 17 per cent to 20 per cent.

Overall, the percentage of ­voters who believe that the ­Coalition would have either lowered inflation sooner or not have made a difference fell from 65 per cent to 55 per cent.

Men were more likely than women to accept that the ­Coalition would have produced lower inflation than Labor – 28 per cent compared with 20 per cent.

The views were heavily skewed along party political lines with 48 per cent of Coalition voters ­believing inflation would have been lower under a Dutton government compared with only 4 per cent of Labor voters.

The latest Newspoll showed the Coalition leading Labor on a two-party-preferred basis of 51 to 49 per cent with an election to be called potentially as early as next weekend.

A majority of voters nationally do not believe the federal Labor government deserves to be re-elected with Anthony Albanese’s approval rating hitting a record low of minus 21.

But voters remain reluctant to swing behind Mr Dutton in sufficient numbers for the Coalition to win a majority in the next parliament.

Jim Chalmers on Monday ­conceded that the election contest would be tight and that the cost-of-living pressures would be central to the argument between Labor and the Coalition.

The Treasurer confirmed he was “working towards” a March 25 budget, as speculation looms over when the Prime Minister would call an election.

He also said he wasn’t thinking about leadership prospects.

“My job is to focus on a different set of numbers in the economy,” Dr Chalmers said.

“I’m not even thinking about that, 100 per cent of my time is spent putting together the budget, putting together our economic policies with our colleagues, working around the clock not just to see the return of the Albanese Labor government, but also to make sure that we can continue to make progress in the economy.

“As Anthony Albanese’s Treasurer in this Labor government, (I will) keep making the right economic decisions to win the next election so we can continue to deliver for the Australian people, particularly when it comes to the cost of living.”

The Newspoll surveyed 1244 voters nationally between February 10 and 14 and followed a two-week parliamentary sitting that many MPs believe was the last ­before the election.