Coalition split: from climate heroes to net zeros

A crucial Nationals partyroom meeting will determine whether the Coalition will fracture over Scott Morrison’s net zero plan.

Nationals Senate Leader Bridget McKenzie says ‘there is no deal unless it is right for the regions’. Picture: Gary Ramage

Senior Nationals are threatening to delay endorsement of Scott Morrison’s net zero 2050 plan until they secure guarantees more ambitious climate targets will not damage jobs or regional economies in a move that risks splitting the government.

A crucial Nationals partyroom meeting on Sunday will determine whether the Coalition parties will fracture or unite over the net zero plan, which was discussed by cabinet for the first time on Wednesday as negotiations continued between the Prime Minister and Barnaby Joyce.

Nationals and conservative Liberals are concerned a more ambitious medium-term target and a net zero pledge going into the Glasgow climate change conference could trigger a voter backlash at the election, including in the key state of Queensland.

With no legislation or partyroom vote required to finalise the long-term emissions reduction strategy, Mr Morrison would still have the option to make a net zero emissions declaration as a majority decision of the cabinet if an internal compromise could not be reached.

Nationals MPs remain deeply divided over the Liberals-led net zero strategy. Sources from both Coalition parties suggested that, while a deal was likely, an immediate outcome may not be agreed on Sunday and negotiations could drag out.

Nationals frontbenchers Bridget McKenzie, Keith Pitt and David Gillespie on Wednesday declared the country party would not rush a decision, citing concerns over the speed of talks and “false assumptions” regarding a net zero jobs boom.

Keith Pitt.

David Gillespie. Picture: David Foote

Senator McKenzie labelled the net zero strategy as the “Liberal Party’s plan”.

“It is the regions that will pay the cost and we have no guarantee on how that’s actually going to be dealt with,” the Nationals Senate leader said. “There is no deal unless it is right for the regions.

“We’ve had all these promises before on water policy, on telecommunications, on sovereign manufacturing, on forestry. And I tell you what: the lived experience out there in the regions isn’t what was promised prior to those decisions being made.”

The warning came ahead of the release by the International Energy Agency of its World Energy Outlook, which reported that the demand for Australian coal and gas could plunge within a decade if countries pushed for net zero emissions goals.

The IEA, which predicts increases in Australian coal and gas exports as the world recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic, said emissions reduction gains made during the pandemic were forecast to reverse by the end of the year, erasing two-thirds of the Covid-19-related reduction. A global rise of 1.2 billion tonnes of carbon pollution, as predicted by the IEA, “would represent a 4 per cent increase and the second largest absolute rise in history”.

Senior government sources told The Australian on Wednesday the Nationals were entitled to make their case before a net zero deal was struck, and there was no fixed timeline to finalise the plan. “The Nationals have a constituency they’re speaking to and have to make sure it’s the right deal for them,” one source said.

The long-term emissions reduction strategy showing improved projections out to 2030, the Future Fuels electric vehicle ­strategy and updated technology investment road map are all expected to headline Mr Morrison’s announcements before the COP26 summit, which he is now expected to attend.

The Australian has been told updated 2030 emissions reduction projections would range between 32 and 36 per cent, up from Australia’s Paris commitment to slash emissions by 26-28 per cent below 2005 levels by the end of the decade.

An electric vehicle ­strategy and an updated technology investment road map are expected to headline Scott Morrison’s announcements before the COP26 summit, which he is expected to attend. Picture: Getty Images

Liberal MPs say they are expecting more ambitious medium-term targets to be announced before the election, further improving on the projections taken to Glasgow. The combined targets of state governments would lower national emissions by 34 per cent by 2030.

Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor said the government’s net zero plan, which includes economic and emissions reduction modelling, wasn’t about “wiping out industries” or regional communities.

Some Liberals are also voicing concern about the climate plan, with one conservative suggesting the government would lose the next election if a net-zero emissions by 2050 target was adopted.

Dr Gillespie, the Regional Health Minister, urged caution on net zero.

He argued that business groups were backing the commitment without adequately analysing what it involved.

“Carbon neutral is a catchphrase, it is a platitude. We need detail. We can’t use it to shut down everything,” Dr Gillespie said. “Are we going to shut down the dairy industry because (the cows) fart too much? Are we going to reduce the beef herd because of the methane they produce.

“I’m all for making the environment better but I’m also keen to make sure we can still exist as a modern, industrial economy and our agricultural production – and all the things that earn wealth for the nation – aren’t kiboshed by unintended consequences from this commitment.”

Another Nationals MP said the partyroom was “fluid” over the net zero plan, with three or four MPs ideologically opposed to a 2050 target and most needing further convincing it would not negatively impact the regions.

Liberal MP Jason Falinski said he believed it was “genuinely in the balance” as to whether the government would gain support from the Nationals for a net-zero emissions by 2050 target. Mr Pitt, the pro-coal Resources Minister whose central Queensland seat of Hinkler has been targeted by minor conservative parties and Labor, said “the fact that its five minutes to midnight is not an emergency for the Nationals partyroom”.

He said the party would be “taking our time to consider the proposal” and warned that Australians supported climate action until they were hit with increased costs.

“There will be questions. There is no doubt about that. I’m not going to forecast what the Nationals partyroom or my colleagues might do,” Mr Pitt said.

“Barnaby’s the leader, but just like me he’s not the Messiah. This is about talking to our people. Welcome to democracy. It’s not an organisation which simply demands obedience.”