Liberals optimistic ahead of redistribution of seats in WA, NSW and Victoria

Liberals are optimistic the looming redrawing of electoral boundaries in NSW, Victoria and WA could give the opposition an edge at the next ­federal election.

Australian Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers.

Liberals are optimistic the looming redrawing of electoral boundaries in NSW, Victoria and Western Australia could give the opposition an edge at the next ­federal election, as the Australian Electoral Commissioner confirmed the final boundaries would be determined by the end of 2024.

Australian Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers said on Thursday Victoria and NSW would each lose a seat as part of the redistribution, while WA’s population had grown enough for the state to be given another seat.

“All other states and territories have retained their current number of seats as a result of this determination,” Mr Rogers said.

“The changes will see the House of Representatives return to 150 seats when the next federal election is contested in either 2024 or 2025.”

Labor sources raised concern with Labor-held seats such as Chisholm or the new electorate of Hawke being abolished from Victoria, while others said they were optimistic an additional seat in WA could “equal out” any potential damage given how strong the Labor vote had been in the west at the election in May last year.

However, Liberal strategists pointed to the drop in popularity for the state Labor Party in WA following the departure of former premier Mark McGowan and the controversial Aboriginal heritage laws, and also to the potential for the mood to swing against the federal Labor Party in the same way.

“We hold few seats in Melbourne, so a seat being abolished there potentially will be a benefit,” one Liberal source said. “And in the West … with McGowan’s departure and with the government over there having significant problems generally, we’d be looking to make back ground there. That (redistribution) might present the opportunity,” they added.

Polling in WA shows the state Liberals pulling ahead of Labor, raising questions over how the sudden drop in popularity for the state government would affect the ALP at the next federal election.

One Labor source said they expected support for the Albanese government to slide in WA, arguing that both the state and federal governments had moved too far to the left and focused on “niche” ­issues – such as the heritage laws and the voice – that didn’t concern everyday West Australians.

Liberal sources also expressed hope the redistribution could harm the Teals, who hold seats in inner Melbourne and Sydney.

“If one of the Teal seats is ­abolished in Sydney, from our point of view that would not be a bad thing,” one senior Liberal source said.

Following the confirmation of the redrawing of seats, the AEC will open a public consultation process on suggestions for electoral boundaries and names that will run until the end of the year.

Proposed boundaries and names will then be announced in the first half of next year.

The AEC stressed the redistribution process would have no bearing on the upcoming referendum on the Indigenous voice to parliament, due later this year.