Liberals attack Climate 200 data as ‘push polling’ by Liberals’ heartland out of reach, Climate 200 polling finds

Liberal candidate for Wentworth Ro Knox has attacked Climate 200 polling suggesting Allegra Spender will comfortably retain the Sydney electorate as ‘lacking credibility’ because their pollster has links to Labor and was previously co-owned by the CFMEU and ACTU.

Teal independent MP Allegra Spender on the hustings in Wentworth on Tuesday. Picture: Max Mason-Hubers

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Liberal candidate for Wentworth Ro Knox has attacked Climate 200 polling indicating Allegra Spender will comfortably retain the eastern Sydney electorate as “lacking credibility” because their pollster has links to Labor and was previously co-owned by the CFMEU and ACTU.

After The Australian revealed the Liberals would likely struggle to win Wentworth after a Climate 200-commissioned uComms poll showed Ms Spender leading Ms Knox on two-party preferred vote by 57.2 per cent to 42.8 per cent, Coalition MPs described similar surveys deployed in teal target seats across the country as “push polling”.

Wentworth liberal candidate Ro Knox. Picture: Renee Nowytarger

Despite prominent Jewish-Australian voters backing Ms Knox through volunteering and fundraising, Australian Electoral Commission redistributions are expected to help Ms Spender ­retain the formerly blue-ribbon Liberal seat. The AEC redistribution moved about 25,000 new voters into Wentworth, including from the more progressive areas of Darlinghurst, Potts Point and Woolloomooloo, which were previously in Tanya Plibersek’s electorate of Sydney.

Ms Knox on Wednesday told The Australian that “Allegra and Climate 200’s poll lacks credibility as it is conducted by a Labor-aligned polling company with ownership links to the CFMEU and the ACTU”.

“Unlike Allegra, I’m not focused on the polls – I’m focused on fighting cost of living, supporting small businesses who are going to the wall and stamping out the hate and anti-Semitism that has exploded since all these people were elected,” Ms Knox said.

Among key complaints from Coalition MPs, including some who believe Ms Knox will fall short in Wentworth, are that Climate 200 is using polling to “boost candidates and gather momentum”. On the eve of last year’s Queensland election, uComms was predicting a knife-edge result.

A 2019 ABC investigation revealed that uComms, which has worked with The Australia Institute, GetUp, Greenpeace and unions, was co-owned by the CFMEU and ACTU. The polling and research firm was also co-owned by James Stewart, a founder of ReachTEL.

Yabbr chief executive Logan Leatch on Wednesday told The Australian that uComms assets were purchased by Yabbr Listens Pty Ltd on June 28 last year. Mr Leatch said Yabbr is a “unified communication platform that provides a range of services for Australian businesses”.

“As a part of this acquisition, Yabbr’s due diligence showed no political affiliation in the ownership of uComms in the last five years. uComms was solely owned by a company of James Stewart’s (Zero Com Pty Ltd) since August 27, 2020. Yabbr provides services across the political spectrum, and does not have any party affiliations,” Mr Leatch said.

Mr Leatch rejected Coalition criticism of uComms polling, which he said was “conducted in accordance with The Australian Polling Council (APC), of which uCommunications Pty Ltd was a founding member”.

“Under the APC guidelines, demographic and voting questions must be asked first to not be impacted by any further questions,” he said.

“The (Wentworth) poll in question was conducted in accordance with the APC guidelines and that the age, gender, primary vote, undecided forced choice, and two party preferred questions were asked before any other question, and therefore isolated from any additional topics raised in the survey”.

The uComms poll of 1068 Wentworth voters on February 12 revealed Ms Spender was in a dominant position to win a second term, indicating an uphill battle Peter Dutton faces in reclaiming inner-city teal seats.

While Liberal campaigners are not giving up on Wentworth, there is a feeling in Coalition ranks that the seat, along with the northern Sydney teal electorates of Mackellar and Warringah, won’t be won back.

Coalition strategists also fear the marginal Liberal-held seat of Bradfield, which neighbours Mackellar and Warringah, could fall to Climate 200-backed candidate Nicolette Boele following the retirement of frontbencher Paul Fletcher.

Without reclaiming teal seats and if he loses Bradfield, Mr Dutton would need to gain 23 seats from Labor, the Greens and other independents – including former Coalition MPs Andrew Gee, Russell Broadbent and Ian Goodenough who defected to the crossbench during the 47th parliament – just to achieve the bare minimum of 76 seats for a majority in the next parliament.

Among top teal targets for the Coalition are Goldstein and Kooyong in Melbourne, and Curtin in Perth.

Overlaying state seat results at the March 8 West Australian election are expected to indicate any shifts back to the Liberals in Kate Chaney’s seat.

With polls predicting minority government for Anthony Albanese or Mr Dutton, independents will play key roles in deciding who can form government.

Ms Spender said that, if she won a second term, her priorities would be tax reform, strengthening hate-speech laws, ensuring certainty for climate change ­investment and increasing the small business definition from 15 to 25 workers.

The 46-year-old, who said it was presumptuous to assume she would automatically win Wentworth, flagged any post-election negotiations would be predicated on the make-up of the parliament.

“It could go so many different ways,” Ms Spender said after meeting voters and business owners along Bondi Road.

“I will focus on stability, the numbers across the country. I’ll be focused on what’s important to the community and what are the values I’ve been elected on.

“You need a stable government. We don’t know what the crossbench will look like. As I have done, I will consult with crossbench colleagues.

“I’m happy to work with either side. But on individual ­issues … I will look at issues based on their merit, based on evidence.

“I care about the environment. It was one of the core issues why I was elected. Businesses want certainty. It may feel great to unwind what everybody else has done and rebadge everything but it’s just wasteful. On climate … businesses are making investment decisions based on the path we have right now.”

Ahead of her campaign launch on Thursday, Ms Spender attacked the major parties for “not dealing with hard economic issues that are long term and difficult to solve” and accused Labor and the Coalition of being on a unity ticket that says ‘don’t worry we won’t touch it”.

The uComms poll showed Ms Spender’s primary vote at 32.6 per cent compared with 35 per cent for Ms Knox.

Asked who they would preference higher, 74.8 per cent picked Ms Spender ahead of Ms Knox at 25.2 per cent.

At the 2022 election, Liberal Dave Sharma won 40.48 per cent of the primary vote and Ms Spender 35.77 per cent. Ms Spender ultimately won Wentworth by 7449 votes, with a 2PP result of 54.19 per cent to 45.81 per cent.

The top voting issues in Wentworth are cost of living (26.2 per cent), economic management (20.5 per cent), climate change and the environment (17.5 per cent), and housing and rental affordability (10.4 per cent).

Ms Spender said the polling was “encouraging but it’s not the real world” and described Wentworth’s shift to independents as being based on “moderate Liberal values which this seat holds pretty profoundly” being discarded because the electorate was never considered to be “at risk”.

Jewish-Australian voters who backed Ms Spender in 2022 are expected to swing behind Ms Knox, following recent anti-­Semitic attacks and Mr Dutton’s strong stance on the issue.

Ms Spender, who has come out strongly against anti-Semitism, said she was focused on “community safety and community ­cohesion”.

She said it was time for a “national approach on hate speech and those inciting hatred … not just the changes that went through the parliament”.

“The sense that any part of our community is being excluded and is not feeling welcome, that is anathema to me,” Ms Spender said. “This is against Australian values.”

Climate 200, founded by Simon Holmes a Court and criticised by the Coalition for being an “unofficial party more aligned to Labor and the Greens”, has increased the number of candidates it will fund and support from 23 to 35 including in the target Coalition seats of Bradfield, Wannon, Cowper, Calare, McPherson, Monash and Flinders.