Liberal Party set to scrap net zero emissions goal amid bitter divisions
The party is expected to back staying in the Paris agreement without a formal ambition to reach net zero at any stage, with moderate MPs aiming to use the Paris element to claim the Coalition retains a net zero objective.
Sussan Ley is on the verge of dumping a net zero emissions target after a majority of Liberal MPs came out against the goal in a mammoth 4½-hour partyroom meeting, leaving a bitterly divided Coalition facing an uphill battle to unite and become an effective opposition to the Albanese government.
The Opposition Leader will finalise her position on net zero in a meeting of Liberal ministers on Thursday, with a joint Coalition position to be unveiled by Sunday.
The party is expected to back staying in the Paris agreement without a formal ambition to reach net zero at any stage, with moderate MPs aiming to use the Paris element to claim the Coalition retains a net-zero objective.
The meeting of Liberal shadow ministers has the prospect of descending into a major brawl, with 10 frontbenchers backing net zero and some leaving open the option of quitting to the backbench.
Ms Ley said little in the meeting as the other 50 Liberal MPs told her what they wanted in the energy and climate policy. Sources said 28 spoke against keeping a net-zero ambition compared with 17 who were in favour.
Five MPs including opposition energy spokesman Dan Tehan did not make it clear whether they were in favour of junking net zero.
However, some MPs said an “unclear” on the list provided to The Australian by a senior Liberal, Cook MP Simon Kennedy, was opposed to net zero.
The Australian revealed on Monday a majority of MPs was opposed to net zero and flagged the likelihood the ambition would be dumped while interim reduction targets under the Paris agreement would be backed.
Showcasing Labor’s line of attack over the expected policy change, Jim Chalmers told The Australian on Wednesday that dumping net zero “would mean less investment, fewer jobs and higher power prices”.
The Treasurer said Ms Ley would side with “crackpots and cookers” if she dumped net zero after Thursday’s meeting of Liberal shadow ministers.
“Not pursuing net zero by 2050 risks lower economic growth, reduced investment, missed export and employment opportunities, and higher electricity prices,” Dr Chalmers said.
“These outcomes would flow from several channels, including heightened policy uncertainty, increased borrowing costs on global markets and the loss of potential new export markets.”
The Treasurer said uncertainty about Australia’s bipartisan commitment to net zero would be detrimental.
Most of the Liberal MPs in favour of net zero backed Ms Ley against Angus Taylor in the leadership ballot after the May election, with the cohort including frontbenchers Angie Bell, Julian Leeser, Melissa Price, Andrew Bragg, Paul Scarr, Anne Ruston, Tim Wilson, Maria Kovacic, Dave Sharma and Jason Wood.
Senator Bragg, Senator Scarr, Senator Kovacic and Mr Wilson this week would not rule out quitting the frontbench if net zero was dumped.
With about a third of the partyroom in favour of retaining net zero, Ms Ley is facing pressure to allow MPs to say the Coalition retains a carbon-neutral goal through its support for the Paris agreement.
But leading conservatives are opposed to any reference to net zero in Coalition talking points, arguing Paris does not require individual signatories to commit to the goal of carbon neutrality by the end of the century.
Deputy Liberal leader Ted O’Brien made a crucial contribution at the meeting, coming out against a net-zero target but with a caveat to give city-based MPs something to sell to their electorates.
Sources say Mr O’Brien told the Liberal partyroom meeting that reaching net zero would be a “welcome outcome” and MPs should not be afraid to say so, even if a target is not Coalition policy.
One moderate MP said after the meeting that it would be difficult to ignore net zero altogether given how divided the party room was and the number of senior frontbenchers supportive of the goal.
“Slightly more people spoke against having a net zero target but everyone spoke in favour of Paris, which is net zero,” the MP said.
“I don’t see how you can be in Paris and not be supportive of net zero – that is the whole point.”
Speaking after the party room meeting, Mr Tehan said the views of the meeting would inform a policy paper to be presented to the opposition shadow ministry on Thursday.
Mr Tehan also circulated a document detailing the Liberals’ “energy and emission reduction principles” which would underpin policy development in his portfolio.
Listed as the two “foundational principles” were a “stable, reliable energy grid which provides affordable power for households and businesses,” alongside “reducing emissions in a responsible, transparent way that ensures Australia does its fair share”.
While not explicitly mentioning net zero, the document noted that the Liberal Party rejected all “unrealistic” targets that had been adopted by the Albanese government and opposes Labor’s policies to reduce emissions including the safeguard mechanism, the vehicle emission standards and tax cuts for electric vehicles.
It also recommitted the Coalition to supporting the Paris agreement.
“We will set realistic targets from government which ensures Australia reduces emissions in alignment with the real performance of comparable countries,” the document said.
The document – handed to Liberal MPs on the way into the meeting – commits a future Coalition government to running existing coal-fired power stations for as long as possible, lifting the ban on nuclear as a source of baseload power, and adding uranium to the critical minerals list.
The meeting began with Liberal federal director Andrew Hirst warning that many voters see net zero as a “proxy” for taking action on climate change, with there being political risks in dumping the aspiration.
But sources within the room also said the chief Liberal strategist pointed to potential opportunities from redefining the aspiration if Ms Ley chose to dump it.
Leadership aspirants Mr Taylor and Andrew Hastie were among leading conservatives who spoke out against retaining net zero, as did James Paterson, Michaelia Cash and Jonathon Duniam.
Other significant figures in the no camp were Alex Hawke and James McGrath, powerbrokers key to Ms Ley’s leadership.
Opposition assistant energy spokesman Dean Smith also spoke against net zero, according to sources.
Despite the Liberals being decimated at the last election and polling going backwards since then, Mr Hastie said a future Coalition government should be prepared to hold a double-dissolution election over repealing Labor’s climate legislation.
Mr Hastie backed staying in Paris but told MPs that the global trend was about energy security rather than emissions reductions.
He said there needed to be a full repeal of net zero legislation, with a future Coalition government to use it as a double-dissolution trigger if it could not win the support of the Senate.
Senator Cash equated dumping net zero with the party’s successful opposition to the voice.
Senator Bragg and Senator Scarr said they supported the Queensland government’s policy, which includes a net-zero by 2050 target but a strong support for coal and gas.
Durack MP Melissa Price, a strong supporter of Ms Ley, said the party would further lose its credibility on the environment if it dropped a net zero target.
Sources said Ms Price took aim at those who wanted to stay in Paris without a net-zero target, arguing they were the same people who had wanted to leave the international agreement.
Townsville-based MP Phillip Thompson said people in central Queensland did not support net zero, while labelling the party infighting as “embarrassing”.
Mr Thompson suggested the Coalition could still win inner-city seats even if it shelved the net-zero target.
“We need to get out of fighting each other, put this shit aside and go out and start representing our people because this is embarrassing,” he said.
To join the conversation, please log in. Don't have an account? Register
Join the conversation, you are commenting as Logout