Net zero showdown ultimate test for Sussan Ley’s leadership
Conservative powerbrokers are claiming Sussan Ley’s only chance of holding onto the top job is dumping any ambition to a carbon-neutral future.
Sussan Ley faces the ultimate test of her leadership as the Liberal party room meets to debate a net-zero emissions target but is not guiding her MPs on how she wants the policy to land, with conservative powerbrokers claiming her only chance of holding onto the top job is dumping any ambition to a carbon-neutral future.
Moderates are still hopeful a deal can be struck to retain a net-zero goal under the Paris Agreement, claiming some conservatives had suggested they were open to a long-term aspiration as long as it was not accompanied by domestic policies mandating it is reached.
Conservatives including leadership aspirants Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie are backing remaining committed to the Paris Agreement but are claiming there is no need for a net-zero commitment as part of the international agreement.
Mr Taylor said on Tuesday he was not “focused on” on challenging for the Liberal leadership but did not rule it out in the future. “It’s not something we’re planning,” he told the Nine Network’s Today, when asked if he would rule out a challenge.
Pro-net-zero frontbencher Tim Wilson put his support for the Opposition Leader on notice based on the outcome of the policy, he told Sky News.
“I’m looking for leadership because that’s the way through this debate. And it’s very important that people step up, they rise to the challenge.”
Allies of Ms Ley say she has not advocated any position internally, in an approach that has infuriated moderates who believe she has created a vacuum that has provided momentum to the push to abandon net zero.
Ms Ley wants the issue to be resolved by consensus from the “bottom up”, although MPs expect her to junk net zero in line with the wishes of top conservatives and other powerbrokers key to her leadership, Alex Hawke and James McGrath. The position of deputy Liberal leader Ted O’Brien is unclear among Liberals, with conservatives claiming he is in favour of junking net zero while moderates say he has signalled support for retaining it.
While Mr Wilson, Andrew Bragg, Paul Scarr and Maria Kovacic are not ruling out quitting the frontbench if net zero is dumped, retaining the goal would likely see more conservative MPs join Mr Hastie and Jacinta Nampijinpa Price on the backbench.
The Australian reported on Wednesday that some moderates were conceding that a majority of MPs favoured dumping net zero, with the views of Liberals shifting over the past month on the back of the rise of One Nation’s polling numbers and the frontrunning of the Nationals.
Liberal frontbencher Melissa McIntosh, who is from Mr Hawke’s centre-right faction, said she did not believe Australia needed any net-zero ambition under Paris, even if it was a vague one. “I know that my community doesn’t want net zero, not at all,” Ms McIntosh told The Australian.
She said she hoped there would be no frontbench resignations after the position on net zero was finalised.
The party room meeting on Wednesday will include presentations from energy spokesman Dan Tehan and federal director Andrew Hirst. There will be contributions from MPs, with the Liberal position to be finalised after a meeting of shadow ministers on Thursday.
A committee of senior Liberals and Nationals will work through the differences of the policies and unveil a joint Coalition position on Sunday.
There are unlikely to be major differences between the policies of the two Coalition parties, with many Liberals favouring the Nationals policy of linking interim emissions targets with the average achievements of OECD countries. There is also broad support for including coal and gas in the Capacity Investment Scheme as part of a plan to make the underwriting program “technology neutral”.
Denying Ms Ley’s leadership was under any pressure, Mr Tehan said bringing the Coalition together under one policy would be like “threading a needle” but he was confident consensus could be achieved.
He said there had to be a balance between taking action on climate change and ensuring there was affordable and reliable energy. “If we don’t have a strong economy we are not going to be able to address climate change in the manner that we need to,” Mr Tehan told the ABC.
Moderate MPs are telling Liberals that the party will fail to win an election if they drop net zero, with the issue particularly important in capital cities. They are sharing polling showing 49 per cent of respondents think the Coalition should keep a net-zero by 2050 target, compared with 30 per cent who believe it should be dropped.
The YouGov poll commissioned by the Blueprint Institute showed just 21 out of 150 House of Representatives seats had a majority of voters who wanted net zero dumped.
Mr Wilson, who beat former teal MP Zoe Daniel in the Melbourne seat of Goldstein at the last election, took aim at the Nationals policy to link emission targets to the OECD average. “I find the idea that we would outsource to a globalist standard like the average of OECD emissions, frankly, bizarre. And I don’t really see that that’s a tolerable policy,” he said. “We need to be honest about what’s achievable and with what time frame.”
Assistant NDIS spokesman Phil Thompson – an opponent of net zero – criticised MPs threatening to quit the frontbench if the carbon neutral target was dropped. “Those people who want to threaten to quit, then quit. You’re not that important anyway,” Mr Thompson told Sky News.
An Afghanistan war veteran, Mr Thompson joined West Australian MP Ben Small and South Australian senator Alex Antic in criticising Ms Ley for forcing Liberals to cut short Remembrance Day commemorations to be in Canberra for the meeting. He said the issue “should have been resolved months ago”.
Groom MP Garth Hamilton attacked moderate MPs for calling to retain a version of net zero that was not Labor’s.
“The same people who tell us net zero is just semantics now insist on calling it ‘Labor’s net zero’. You just can’t beat mod logic,” Mr Hamilton said.
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