Labor’s electoral woes return but no joy either for the Coalition

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s great pitch to Middle Australia is failing to resonate. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Martin Ollman

Anthony Albanese’s great pitch to Middle Australia is failing to resonate.

With the starter’s gun on the next federal election campaign now set to be fired in 12 months, federal Labor is gradually drifting toward minority government.

The latest Newspoll confirms the continuation of a trend that was only briefly arrested in January with the Prime Minister’s post-Christmas reset.

Labor’s primary vote has fallen back into the post-referendum decline that triggered Albanese’s tax cut backflip and the government’s campaign to save the seat of Dunkley. It is now at its second lowest point since the election. Only the backlash in the wake of the referendum defeat delivered a worse result.

If nothing changes, this trajectory still continues to deny the Coalition government but almost certainly would deliver a minority Labor government at the next election.

If anything can be taken federally from the Tasmanian election, it is the confirmation of this trend away from the major parties, with the churning of votes on the left between Labor and the Greens and the erosion of support from the Coalition to independents.

More than 30 per cent of voters nationally continue to nominate anyone other than the two major parties.

It demonstrates not only the ongoing disenchantment within the community but a belief that neither of the two major parties has an answer to their cost-of-living concerns.

There are deep challenges for both the major parties.

Albanese might have saved the seat of Dunkley with Labor’s tax cut changes but beyond that it is clear there has been no electoral dividend. Voters are demanding more. On the contrary, Labor has gone backwards since then and the Prime Minister languishes in a sea of electoral disillusionment about his leadership.

This establishes a clash of ideas ahead of the May budget with Jim Chalmers flagging a low-spending reform agenda and a caucus that will demand more spending.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has a long way to go. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Martin Ollman

Peter Dutton, the poll confirms the slow improvement in the Coalition’s position. He has a long way to go. It will also confirm for him, and his party room, that the policy adventurism on nuclear power has done nothing to harm the Coalition, considering its primary vote lifted a point.

Coalition Opposition parties have gone into election campaigns in worse 2PP positions and won.

The latest Newspoll – which shows little change in approval ratings for either leader, both in negative territory – will sharpen the minds of strategists on both sides. Albanese is failing to inspire the electorate while Dutton is absent of an answer that would galvanise the electorate.

If nothing else, Tasmania provides a window into the broader disillusionment with the major parties.