These are the numbers that Labor has been privately worried about for months.
They point to a much tighter contest than previous polls have suggested, possibly imperilling the government’s majority.
There has been a quiet conversation in Labor circles about the potential for a large number of government seats to either swing wildly against the ALP or potentially even fall.
The Newspoll raises the spectre of the government’s 11-seat lower house buffer being significantly undermined with three more weeks to go before polling day. The conventional thinking is that voters tune in late to state campaigns and it is only after the Melbourne Cup that many people decide how they will vote.
On that basis, Daniel Andrews will be starting to wonder where all this will end.
The numbers suggest, however, that whatever happens it will still be seriously hard for the Coalition to seize power, but of course that depends on how much the Labor vote falls on November 26.
Until today’s Newspoll, the published statewide surveys had fuelled the perception that Labor would sail, with a gale behind it, back into power.
The parties normally track their polling on a basket of seats they need to win or hold to have a successful election.
Labor is concerned about the potential for dangerous anti-government swings in seats like Yan Yean (16.8 per cent), Nepean (0.6 per cent), Narre Warren North (10.5 per cent), Narre Warren South (10.7 per cent), Melton (5.8 per cent), Bass (ALP but notionally Liberal), Richmond (5.9 per cent), Northcote (1.7 per cent) and Hawthorn (0.4 per cent), which are spread geographically across the city but with most at-risk seats in outer areas.
Then there are seats like Werribee (9.2 per cent), Point Cook (12.4 per cent), Cranbourne (9 per cent) and Albert Park (12.9 per cent) that are also uncertain for the government.
The problem for the Liberal Party is that up to three of these seats would fall to the Greens and potentially several others to independents, making it even more unlikely that Matthew Guy would be able to stitch together a government.
Labor believes its great hope is that Guy’s numbers are so bad, with 52 per cent of those surveyed dissatisfied with his performance.
After the redistribution, the Coalition will need a net gain of 19 seats to win government in their own right.
Impossible? No. Likely? No again.
Pollsters are hearing a consistent message of concern about health, cost of living and debt.
The election campaign so far has been a reckless spendathon, with state debt hurtling toward $165bn just as the world economy looks like going the way of the Space Shuttle Challenger.
Perhaps the biggest sign of where Labor thinks it stands is its decision to use negative attack ads at this stage of the campaign targeting Guy, shadow treasurer David Davis and former frontbencher Tim Smith.
A government confident of its own record would be more focused on its achievements.
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