Victorian election 2022: New generation to shift Benambra, Polwarth vote

A generational shift has taken place since 2018, altering the way regional seats like Benambra and Polwarth will lean later this month.

A generation gap will be felt at the ballot box across regional seats later this month, a top election strategist says.

RedBridge Group director Kos Samaras said demographic changes were accelerated by the 2020-21 coronavirus lockdowns, with many Melburnians relocating to regional Victoria since the last state election four years ago.

The former Labor strategist has performed work for Climate 200 and teal candidates and has analysed the state of play in key seats such as Benambra and Polwarth.

“We do know that if you live in regional Victoria, and you’re over the age of 50, you own your own home outright — then three out of five of you are voting for the Coalition,” Mr Samaras said.

“Labor secures about 1.5 (out of five) and the rest (of the voters) spray elsewhere.

“The flip side is the Coalition is getting only 10 to 20 per cent of the millienial vote, that’s people under the age of 40.

“That’s an important point because they make up 36 per cent of the voters in regional Victoria while baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1962) and older make up 38 per cent of voters enrolled in regional Victoria.

“Those two significant demographic cohorts are starting to overlap and we expect millienials to overtake them in the next four years.”

Jacqui Hawkins is standing as an independent candidate for the Benambra electorate. Picture: Zoe Phillips

Mr Samaras said this month’s election would highlight how thousands of voters had relocated from urban to regional Victoria in the past four years.

“Demographic churn (in regional) constituencies tend to be performing a lot better for the Labor Party – Torquay is a good example,” he said.

“If you go up to Benambra, Jacqui Hawkins is an independent up there, nearly won the seat last time.

“Based on research we’ve conducted up there, that was commissioned by Climate 200, (Ms Hawkins) is in the hot seat to win, because the Liberal primary vote is in the low 30s.”