Labor favoured in Eden-Monaro by-election

Senior Coalition figures believe the government is closing the gap on Labor in the Eden-Monaro by-election but will narrowly fall short of victory.

Liberal candidate for Eden-Monaro Fiona Kotvojs talks to a voter in Queanbeyan. Picture: Sean Davey

Senior Coalition figures believe the government is closing the gap on Labor ahead of Saturday’s Eden-Monaro by-election but will narrowly fall short of victory, a ­result that could deepen divis­ions over claims the Nationals undermined the Liberal candidate.

Despite published polls suggesting that Labor held a four-point, two-party-preferred lead this week, senior ALP figures refused to claim frontrunner status in a seat held by just 0.85 per cent.

As the campaign ended, the Australian Federal Police revealed it had arrested a 32-year-old man from Blacktown in Sydney’s west for allegedly spreading false emails targeting Labor’s candidate Kristy McBain.

The Weekend Australian has been told the alleged operation monitored Eden-Monaro can­didates’ social media footprints, in a sophisticated disinformation cam­paign that may be linked to spam emails sent during the 2018 Wentworth by-election.

Labor’s Kristy McBain, left, in Wandella.

Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs said she expected the result would be closer than at last year’s federal election, when she lost to popular former Labor MP Mike Kelly by 1685 votes. “I hope I’m able to increase the vote (from last year) but it is going to be really close. Every vote is going to count and it might come down to just one or two votes, I don’t know,” said the small-business woman and cattle farmer. “It took about 10 days before we got a result last time. This time I’m expecting it’ll be that long, if not longer.”

NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro refused to say if he would follow his party’s how-to-vote card, which puts the Nationals first and Liberals second, after The Australian revealed he and his supporters were trying to sabotage the Morrison government’s bid to win the seat by asking voters to preference Labor ahead of the ­Liberals.

Mr Barilaro, the NSW Deputy Premier, withdrew as a potential candidate before the campaign began but has expressed interest in running for the seat in 2022 if it ­remains in Labor hands.

“What happens in the privacy of the ballot box is for all Australians to enjoy,” Mr Barilaro told Sky News. “I back people before parties. That’s probably why Kristy McBain is doing very well … Kristy is a very good candidate, very well liked down the south coast of this electorate.”

Danny Hunt, left, and Ralph Ogden. Picture: Sean Davey

Mr Barilaro’s interventions in the final days of the campaign have frustrated Liberals, who concede the “sideshow” has been a nuisance but are hoping it does not cut through to voters.

A government has not taken a seat from an opposition at a by-election in 100 years but Scott Morrison’s approval ratings are at record highs in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has rendered the opposition largely irreleva­nt.

Labor sources acknow­ledged that the branch-stacking scandal in the Victorian ALP and raids on the home and office of NSW Labor MP Shaoquett Moselmane amid allegations of Chinese government infiltration had hung over its campaign. But senior Labor operatives and MPs are rejecting the prospect of repercussions for Anthony Al­ban­es­e if the ALP loses.

Enjoying a coffee in the sun on Friday, Queanbeyan residents and mates Danny Hunt, a Liberal voter, and Ralph Ogden, a Labor voter, reflected the closeness of the Eden-Monaro contest. Both wanted more bipartisanship after a tough year for the electorate, which has faced drought, floods, bushfires and COVID-19.

“The energy policy is a classic one,” Mr Ogden said.

“They (the major parties) have to have a few basics they agree on and then say, ‘we’re going to be differen­t here and here’.”