Eden-Monaro to ring in next Morrison miracle or ALP’s man for the ‘missing out’

The result of the Eden-Monaro by-election will determine the character of Australian politics through to the next election.

Eden-Monaro by-election voting at Wolumla on Saturday. Picture: Sean Davey

The result of the by-election for the sprawling southern NSW seat of Eden-Monaro will determine the character of Australian politics through to the next election, whether it’s next year or all the way up to 2022.

This is because the by-election for the so-called bellwether seat of government that stretches from Canberra to the Victorian border and from the NSW coast to the Snowy Mountains and beyond has been fought on the grounds of managing crises and the griev­ances of those directly affected.

The Coalition has tried to focus on the necessary economic management and enormous spending required to keep millions in work and restoring the economy, while Labor has kept its focus on the grievances of those who have “missed out” or are about to “miss out” on bushfire recovery support or enhanced wage payments.

The greater calamity of the coronavirus pandemic has moved the national focus from the bushfires of summer and has made millions more people and businesses dependent on JobSeeker, JobKeeper and a plethora of other government schemes that face a huge revision at the end of September with the potential to create millions more who will “miss out”.

If the national concern about COVID-19 as well as the national approval for Scott Morrison’s health and economic responses subsume the localised anger and resentment about bushfire damage, which Anthony Albanese has highlighted for the past six weeks, then the government’s strategy will be reinforced and Labor will have to think carefully about a strategy that looks negative and whingeing.

Because of the health limits placed on campaigning, the closeness of the vote at the election last year — just 1600 votes after a swing against the ALP — and the diversity of the electorate, it is impossible to predict the result in the Independence Day by-election.

But it’s not impossible to predict what the political reactions will be, justified or not, to the potential outcomes of a big swing to Labor and a strong victory, another close Labor win or a Liberal win, no matter what the margin because it will be the first time in 100 years a sitting government has taken a seat from an opposition.

Labor candidate for Eden-Monaro Kristy McBain and Anthony Albanese. Picture: AAP

An ALP win, Albanese’s first electoral test as leader, will strengthen his position and give him the authority of a successful campaigner, but a Liberal win will set him back and provide grounds for his internal critics to grumble more loudly.

It’s unlikely there would be any immediate leadership move against Albanese but there would be pressure to change tactics and direction. Even a closer result for Labor than last year would have that effect and create doubt about grievance politics.

For the Prime Minister a win this weekend would be his second “miracle” election victory, giving him even greater authority, demonstrating a full recovery from the personal damage of the pre-Christmas bushfire mistakes and cementing his “five-year plan” of economic recovery.

Campaigning to the last before the poll, both leaders committed to their election strategies and projected them forward.

Morrison said: “We are again today talking about jobs because that’s what we’re focused on. And on Saturday, to vote for jobs, to vote for the economic recovery, to vote for the rebuilding of our communities … to vote for the certainty and the stability that has been delivered by my government, not just in the recovery after the bushfires, not just in how we are working through the COVID-19 pandemic but, more importantly, the rebuilding that comes out of that.

“To vote for that stability, to vote for that support, to vote for those jobs and for those jobs continuing.”

The Opposition Leader said: “We’re focused on people who’ve been left behind and making sure that they have someone to speak up for them. That’s what’s critical. This electorate doesn’t need someone to just sit there and give a tick to the government.

“We have been focused on the needs of the people of Eden-Monaro and will continue to be so after polls close at six o’clock, when parliament resumes in August, when the budget comes down in October, throughout next year, we’ll be focused on the needs of the people here.”

From the moment the sitting Labor MP for Eden-Monaro, Mike Kelly, announced his resignation from parliament because of ill-health, the politics have been about the catastrophic summer bushfires and the catastrophic winter coronavirus pandemic.

How Morrison and the Coalition reacted to both and how Albanese and the ALP have responded have been the driving forces of the election campaign, despite various distractions, and will shape the outcome.

There was genuine animosity towards Morrison in the bushfire-devastated Eden-Monaro electorate and for his Hawaiian holiday and fumbled media attempts to regain lost personal support in the region.

Indeed, Labor has used the embarrassing footage of a firefighter refusing to shake the Prime Minister’s hand in its election advertising campaign and Albanese has baited Morrison at every opportunity about his “inability” to come to fire scenes in Cobargo, where he was abused by fire victims.

Labor has worked to maintain the rage, appealed to those who have “missed out” and highlighted the experience of Kristy McBain, the ALP candidate who was the Bega mayor during the bushfires.

Albanese constantly referred to recovery and repair work that had not been done to burnt houses and farms.

When asked about people missing out, he repeatedly said it was “real” and the Coalition was leaving people behind.

This is a vital judgment that the Opposition Leader has made. Telling people they have been badly treated is accepted and supported only if it is true; politicians can’t tell voters something different to their lived experience.

It is also to necessary to Albanese’s success that there are enough people in the electorate who have been directly affected by the fires to feel let down and others who fear the loss of COVID-19 support, such as JobKeeper, to outweigh those who are satisfied with Morrison’s response to the pandemic. Certainly, the national Newspoll surveys show Morrison’s personal support is at record highs as he soars above Albanese as the preferred prime minister and holds the Coalition primary vote just above what it was at the election last year.

Morrison has not been campaigning in the electorate as much as Albanese, although his intervention has been decisive — big announcements from an incumbent government — and always reinforcing the image of being in charge, managing the economy and the nation at a time of crisis.

There is a clear view that the Liberal campaign has picked up ground in the final two weeks of the campaign and that “if everything goes right on the day” the Liberals could have their second miracle after a bad run of by-election results that finished Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership and handed Morrison his first electoral loss as a leader.

Morrison is making no stupid predictions or claims about the outcome and in the event of a narrow loss will be able to point to direct sabotage from the Nationals, with selfish and destructive ambitions willing to see a Liberal loss in the hope of another chance to run in Eden-Monaro at the next election.

Likewise, Albanese has a readymade excuse for losing a once-in-a-century by-election and that is a once-in-a-century pandemic where a single electorate has reflected national sentiment and returned the bellwether to the paddock of government.

But if Labor does lose or just hangs on, even if Albanese does have an excuse, he will be forced to re-examine his concentration on Morrison’s failings when the voters are satisfied with the Prime Minister.