It might have been more than 100 years since a government won a seat off an opposition in a by-election, but the Prime Minister and the Coalition go into this weekend’s by-election for the marginal seat of Eden Monaro as the favourites.
The usual rules do not apply. The norm of swings against government’s do not apply in the current climate.
Given the stratospheric approval ratings of Scott Morrison – 68 per cent job approval to be sure – he really should be capable of dragging his party over the line to deliver the crucial seat to the government, thereby expanding his slender majority in the House.
That’s why he’s spending as much time campaigning as governing right now. He even had his Liberal candidate in tow for a Snowy 2.0 announcement (about nothing really) to highlight how important she is to the build.
You’d think she’s building the hydro facility herself!
Never mind the chaos surrounding preselections for Nationals and Liberals. The in then out antics of Andrew Constance and John Barilaro. That’s all ancient history now. The pandemic has seen support for Morrison’s performance sky rocket, and Anthony Albanese and his opposition have become a mere sideshow.
It is no coincidence that the last time an opposition did lose a seat it previously held to a government at a by-election was during the 1919 global pandemic. The government back then was rewarded for its management of the crisis, and the same should happen today.
If Albanese defies the odds and pulls off a win on Saturday – against expectations given the seat was highly marginal To begin with and the outgoing Labor member, Mike Kelly, had a strong personal vote – it will be an important stabiliser for his leadership.
It will also highlight that the PM isn’t as electorally dominant as most now assume. Certainly not in bushfire ravaged parts of the country – remembering his Hawaiian adventure while Australia burned.
The Coalition has done well managing expectations in the lead up to Saturday – in sharp contrast to Malcolm Turnbull in the lead-up to the by-elections he did not win shortly before being rolled as leader.
But expectation management can’t hide the fact that as unusual as government’s winning seats off opposition’s at by-elections are, it would be unusual for this popular PM to fall short and be defeated this Saturday.
Behind the scenes Liberals are quietly confident and Labor is somewhat pessimistic of its chances.
Eden-Monaro is therefore Morrison’s by-election to lose.
Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.
Butler shows the way in guideline review
Australia’s Health Minister has decided to seek a new national treatment guideline for the care of young people with gender distress
Olympics boss rejects conflict of interest claim over $2.5bn arena
Stephen Conry insists he lodged declarations to address any ‘perceived conflicts of interest’ between his former high-flying corporate job and heading the agency charged with getting the 2032 Games build back on track.