Labor eyes early double-dissolution poll over housing bill to cut back Greens

Anthony Albanese’s threat of a double-dissolution election is informed by ALP calculations that it could cost the Greens several Senate spots.

Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather at his rented home in Woollongabba in Brisbane. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen

Anthony Albanese’s threat of a double-dissolution election is ­informed by ALP ­calculations that it could cost the Greens several Senate spots, with the minor party using the stand-off over the stalled $10bn affordable housing package to target inner-city Labor seats across the country.

Greens supporters will this weekend aim to win over Labor voters as part of a co-ordinated doorknocking campaign in: the inner-city Brisbane seats of Moreton and Lilley; the Melbourne seats of Fraser, Wills and Higgins; the ACT seat of Bean; the NSW seat of Sydney; and the seat of Adelaide in South ­Australia.

Greens housing spokesman Max Chandler-Mather said Moreton and Lilley in Brisbane were vulnerable because of the high number of renters living in them and were “the next ones off the block for us in Queensland”.

“If you look at some of the suburbs in Lilley, up to 60 per cent of people in them rent and we will be trying to take our message to those voters,” Mr Chandler-­Mather said.

The Prime Minister on Friday ramped up his attack over the Greens’ decision to block Labor’s $10bn Housing Australia Future Fund, arguing that the “way to ensure that this doesn’t provide a trigger is to pass the legislation.”

“For the Greens political party that say that they care about ­social housing, that they care about affordability – to be blocking this is quite absurd,” Mr Albanese said.

Senior ALP figures suggested a double-dissolution trigger would not be used to bring on an early election but could instead be pulled as a political gambit to recast the Senate and reduce the influence of the Greens.

But the Greens did not make any concessions to end the stand-off, with Mr Chandler-Mather and acting leader Mehreen ­Faruqi writing to Mr Albanese and the premiers standing by their terms for a compromise.

“If the commonwealth is willing to use the offer of additional federal funding to help co­ordinate, through national cabinet, the kind of reforms now being considered by the Victorian ­government, including a two-year freeze on rent increases, and ­ongoing caps on rents after that, and to put $2.5bn a year of the $20bn surplus towards building public housing, the Greens are willing to pass the HAFF,” Mr Chandler-Mather and Senator Faruqi said.

Mr Chandler-Mather said the Greens would turn up the heat on Labor in Queensland – where they won a surprise three lower house seats and a second Senate place in 2022 – as part of a pitch to the estimated eight million Australians who rent and are seen as most affected by the national housing affordability crisis.

Labor holds only five of Queensland’s 30 federal seats, and must lift there if the government is to improve its precarious position in parliament at the next election, which is due by mid-2025.

Mr Chandler-Mather rejected criticism that the Greens were being hypocritical by blocking funding for social and affordable housing that would flow from the legislation. Labor says the investment fund would pay for 30,000 new homes over five years, on an anticipated annual return of $500m which would be topped up by the government if necessary.

Mr Albanese said the policy would help “women and children escaping domestic violence” in ­addition to Indigenous Australians in remote communities and veterans at risk of homelessness.

Mr Chandler-Mather said the Greens had already compromised by halving their original demand for the government to outlay $5bn a year to $2.5bn, and this figure was not final.

“We recognise that we need to negotiate and we can’t get everything we want,” Mr Chandler-Mather said.

“So what we’re saying now is: can’t we at least discuss a number between $500m and $2.5bn that will actually make a difference?”

Political strategist Glenn ­Druery – known as the “preference whisperer” for masterminding the rise of minor parties over the past decade – said a double-dissolution election could reduce the Greens’ representation in the upper house to “seven to nine seats maximum” and boost the ALP. He said Labor would be ­likely to increase its foothold in the Senate from 26 seats to 28-30 seats, while the Coalition would shift from 31 seats to between 27 and 29 seats.

The Greens held 12 Senate seats after the last election, including that of Lidia Thorpe who has since left the party to sit as an ­independent.

Mr Druery argued a double-dissolution election would reduce their numbers and facilitate the entry into the upper-house of ­between four and six “other” ­candidates

“The message Albanese’s ­delivering to the Greens is: if you don’t come to the table, I’m going to wipe out almost half of your numbers,” Mr Druery said.

“The take-out is that ‘others’ will pick up seats … It will potentially give the ALP two paths forward for the negotiation of legislation: one path being the Greens and the other without them.”

ANU professor Ian McAllister – an expert in elections, voting and party systems – said he thought Mr Druery’s prediction was ­possible but suggested the Greens were more likely to “stay the same, or go down one or two seats” while a range of “other” candidates were likely to win Senate spots.

“Once you reduce the (Senate) quota you will get more third-party candidates,” Professor McAllister said. “All of this is fraught.”

Peter Dutton said he thought it was unlikely Mr Albanese would go to an early election given he had “created a cost-of-living crisis through his economic and energy policies.”

“It looks tricky like his stance on the voice,” the Opposition leader said.

“I doubt the PM wants to he heading to the polls anytime soon … There is a growing anger from families and small businesses who can’t afford to pay their bills ­because of Mr Albanese’s failed policies.”

A senior Greens strategist said the minor party would do well at a double-dissolution election, highlighting the fact the party was “basically hitting 14 per cent in a lot of national polling anyway”.

“We don’t think Labor’s being serious,” the strategist said.

“If they want to go a national election fighting the Greens to build less housing and not help renters, I don’t think that will end well for them.”

Mr Albanese said he did not “anticipate” there would be an election this year but argued that Labor had a clear mandate for its housing policy.

“I know the difference that a secure roof over my head, and my mum’s head, made to my life. It is important that this bill be passed,” he said. “I say to (Greens leader) Adam Bandt: he needs to exercise responsibility over his party and make sure that they vote for this bill and get this started.”

Mr Chandler-Mather was credited with masterminding a potent ground campaign by the Greens in Brisbane at the last election. He comfortably took Griffith, previously held by former prime minister Kevin Rudd, from rising Labor star Terri Butler who had been pencilled in to join Mr Albanese’s cabinet.

The blue-ribbon Liberal National Party divisions of Brisbane and Ryan also fell to the Greens in an ambush of the major parties.

Moreton borders Griffith, and is held by Labor stalwart Graham Perrett, who faces a controversial preselection challenge under Labor affirmative-action rules, ­despite having lifted the once-marginal seat out of the danger zone last year. Sports Minister Anika Wells has done well in northside Lilley to improve the buffer she inherited from former treasurer and deputy prime minister Wayne Swan.