Anthony Albanese’s veiled threat to wipe out Greens in the Senate over $10b housing bill
At this stage, few in Canberra are taking him seriously. All prime ministers covet a double-dissolution trigger in a political arms race.
But it is a politically risky manoeuvre to start throwing early election threats around. Which suggests it shouldn’t be so readily dismissed. In Albanese’s case, it would appear on the surface to signal an increasing rage at the Greens and their intransigence on the $10bn housing fund which the government wants to get off the books as cost-of-living issues start to bite.
This is the second time the government has raised the prospect of a double-dissolution election over the housing fund in as many months.
Labor has already sought legal advice on whether the first trigger, a motion by the Greens to delay the bill, was satisfied in June despite the bill itself not having yet been put to a vote in the Senate.
If the Greens call the government’s bluff, Albanese then comes under pressure to follow through.
A failure to act would render the Prime Minister politically impotent. This isn’t in Albanese’s thinking. Therefore it would be dangerous to assume the threat is nothing more than political bluster.
There is a deeper and more strategic reason as to why Albanese should be taken seriously and why Labor insiders confirm that he is determined to get a trigger available to him.
It’s one that goes to the heart of the battle between Labor and the Greens.
Albanese is of the firm belief that the Liberal Party is so badly damaged that its prospects are limited in the near term. But he also knows that political conditions rarely remain static.
Labor would win an early election, barring unforeseen catastrophe.
But this isn’t just about an early election, as Albanese on Friday confirmed: voters would not be going to the polls this year other than to vote on the voice.
At least part of Albanese’s thinking is focused heavily on the Senate, which is where a double-dissolution election holds a tantalising prospect for Labor – by potentially delivering an existential blow to the Greens.
In a full Senate election, the Greens’ representation could be cut dramatically, some strategists suggest, because of the lower quota required making it easier for other minor parties to pick up spots. Labor would also likely improve its position in the upper house.
As minor party strategist Glen Druery told The Australian’s Joe Kelly: “The message Albanese’s delivering to the Greens is if you don’t come to the table, I’m going to wipe out almost half of your numbers.”
The Prime Minister’s language around the double-dissolution option was more reasoned and rehearsed than it may appear. Several cabinet ministers echoed the pre-rehearsed lines in press conferences throughout the day. One can only surmise that Labor has conducted polling to inform Albanese of the wisdom of issuing such an ultimatum.
Albanese’s confidence rests on the assumed knowledge that the Greens must surely understand the implications that a double-dissolution election might hold for them.
The complicating factor is the voice.
Albanese is now so invested in the referendum there is little chance of him changing course or delaying. While there would be inherent risks in holding an election after a failed referendum – which would involve sending people to the polls twice – Albanese would be mindful that his own leadership and judgment could be called into question.
The best way to reassert himself would be to win an election.
While the practicalities suggest a double-dissolution election might appear remote, Albanese’s ambition to secure a trigger for one should not be dismissed.
There are compelling reasons for Albanese to consider such a course. The cost-of-living crisis will only get worse. And while the Liberal Party is in no fit state to fight an election, this may not last forever.
If an opportunity presented itself, why wouldn’t Albanese consider it?
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Having deliberately floated the threat of a double-dissolution election over the government’s stalled social housing policy, Anthony Albanese now owns the illusion.