Jobs boom to ignite federal election campaign: Josh Frydenberg

With the economy poised for a new year job boom, Josh Frydenberg declares the election will be a referendum on economic management.

Josh Frydenberg says the new data shows the labour market continues to ‘roar back’ to life. Picture: Gary Ramage

Employment numbers have surged by almost half a million since the height of the eastern state Covid lockdowns, with the economy poised for a new year job boom, as Josh Frydenberg declares the election will be a referendum on jobs growth, tax policy and economic management.

Fresh tax office data shows that 485,000 new payroll jobs were added to the labour market since the economic trough of the Delta lockdown in September, with employment levels now 5.7 per cent higher than prior to the pandemic.

The new figures, which have outstripped the most recent forecasts, consolidate Australia’s position as leading the major advanced economies in job growth with new hires rising sharply – by 45 per cent – in December.

The better-than-expected bounce-back has also led to a further reduction in the nation’s welfare bill, with a 1.8 per cent fall in the number of people receiving unemployment benefits in December.

The release of the jobs data comes as the Treasurer launched the first major election salvo of the year with a strident personal attack on Labor leader Anthony Albanese, labelling him the most left-wing leader in decades.

With the federal election less than six months away, Mr Frydenberg has kicked off the Coalition’s scare campaign against the Opposition Leader, accusing Mr Albanese of trying to “sneak into government” with a small-target agenda that sought to conceal an historical devotion to class war politics.

“The real Anthony Albanese is a hard-left party apparatchik who has spent his career arguing for higher taxes, bigger government and attacking what he has called for more than three decades ‘the top end of town’,” Mr Frydenberg writes in The Australian on Monday. “No one should be fooled by Albanese and Labor’s small-target strategy. It is a ruse. A tactic to sneak into government only after which Labor will reveal its real plans to attack aspirational Australians.”

Mr Frydenberg said the new data showed the labour market continued to “roar back” to life following the lifting of lockdowns across NSW, Victoria and the ACT in October and November.

On the back of the updated jobs numbers, the Treasurer issued a challenge to Labor treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers, who had declared in July 2020 the election would be won or lost over jobs.

Dr Chalmers had said the test for the government’s management of the Covid recession “will be what happens to jobs”.

But Mr Frydenberg said the strong performance of Australia’s labour market, “flies in the face of Labor’s scaremongering”.

“Labor is always talking down the economy and claimed the sky would fall in when the Morrison government responsibly tapered our economic support. The Australian economy is gearing up for a strong rebound over summer as vaccination rates exceed 90 per cent nationally, restrictions ease and our jobs market is heating up,” Mr Frydenberg told The Australian.

“Our economic recovery plan is also leading to fewer Australians relying on government support, with people on income support falling rapidly as the jobs market strengthens.

“We are working to a clear fiscal strategy to drive down unemployment to historically low levels. This has seen Australia avoid a scarring of the labour market so reminiscent of Australia’s previous recessions in the 1980s and ’90s. By growing the economy, getting more Australians into work and off welfare, we will help secure Australia’s economic recovery.”

The new jobs statistics, based on Australian Taxation Office single touch payroll (STP) data, showed there were an estimated 485,000 jobs added to the labour market by the end of November, compared to the trough in September during the height of the lockdowns in NSW, Victoria and the ACT.

This included the recovery of jobs lost during the lockdowns but also new jobs created since the restrictions were eased. NSW came out of lockdown on October 11, the ACT on October 15 and Victoria on October 22.

Job numbers are now 5.7 per cent higher than pre-Covid levels and are up across all states and territories.

Hiring activity has also picked up sharply, with new hires around 45 per cent higher than in August last year.

In NSW they have increased by around 12 per cent in the fortnight ending on December 5, and were 87 per cent above the peak lockdown levels.

While hires in Victoria have fallen by 2 per cent in the same two weeks, this was off the back of an 8 per cent rise in the preceding fortnight, and was 57 per cent above levels in August when the state was in full lockdown.

“Easing restrictions across NSW, Victoria and the ACT has seen 485,000 jobs created across the country as we put lockdowns behind us,” Mr Frydenberg said.

“November saw the unemployment rate fall to 4.6 per cent, which is another sign the Morrison government’s economic plan is working, with the unemployment rate today below when we came to government.

“The RBA is also forecasting the unemployment rate to be sustained below 5 per cent for just the second time in 50 years.”

Social services data shows that in the first two weeks of December there had been a 1.8 per cent fall in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits, with the strongest fall recorded in Victoria – 4 per cent – which had endured the strictest lockdown rules.

Mr Frydenberg said Australia’s recovery had exceeded all expectations, with the unemployment rate in November falling to its lowest level since the Howard-Costello era.

The Treasurer has pledged to create one million new jobs over the next four years as a key plank of the government’s election campaign agenda.

Labor has argued that economic success should be measured on secure jobs, with wage growth central to its election pitch.

The mid-year economic and budget update, released in December, forecast a surge in employment growth to 2024-25, with 150,000 more jobs expected to be created than had been forecast in the May 2021 budget.

This was predicated, however, on the absence of any further lockdowns or restrictions being imposed by state governments in response to the spread of the Covid Omicron variant.