Jacinta Allan no certainty to succeed Daniel Andrews as Victorian Premier

Labor powerbrokers warn that Daniel Andrews’ most likely successor, Jacinta Allan, would face difficulty commanding the unity MPs reluctantly granted the state’s 48th premier.

Victorian Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan with Daniel Andrews. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Nicki Connolly

Victorians are unlikely to know who their next premier will be until at least early next week, as Labor powerbrokers warn that Daniel Andrews’ most likely successor, Jacinta Allan, would face difficulty commanding the unity MPs reluctantly granted the state’s 48th premier.

Announcing he would be resigning as of 5pm on Wednesday after nine years as premier, Mr Andrews on Tuesday indicated caucus would meet at midday on Wednesday to determine his successor.

But under ALP rules, nominations for leader must be opened at Wednesday’s meeting and must remain open for three days.

If there is more than one nomination received, the vote must go to a ballot of Labor members and state caucus, with a 50 per cent weighting for each. In order to nominate, candidates must receive the signatures of at least 20 per cent of state caucus.

Ms Allan, from Mr Andrews’ Socialist Left faction, declared on Tuesday afternoon she would be a candidate, and The Australian understands Ben Carroll from the party’s Right has also been canvassing support.

Late on Tuesday it was far from clear whether Ms Allan would be challenged, with factional bosses, who were blindsided by the Premier’s resignation, locked in negotiations.

“We’re either going to reach a negotiated outcome today, or there’ll be World War Three tomorrow,” one Right factional player told The Australian.

Another, from a Left faction, said it was “correct” that “World War Three” was a possibility.

“That would mean a full, open contest with all leadership positions spilled,” the powerbroker said.

Senior Labor operatives said Ms Allan, should she become leader, would face a huge challenge to maintain party unity. “Whatever people might say about Daniel, he’s got a lot of skill. He’s the best communicator probably in this country’s history when it comes to politics. Jacinta doesn’t have that,” a factional player said.

“(Mr Andrews) could get away with bad behaviour because, at the end of the day, he was an election-winning machine. Everyone in that caucus knows Jacinta is not an election-winning machine.

“Because of the way he has governed the internal politics of that caucus, there are so many bruised people that they’re not prepared to endure this without him in the room. Jacinta is going to have to bring people together if she wants to succeed.”

Ms Allan took to X to congratulate Mr Andrews on his “unparalleled legacy that has changed our state forever & for the better”.

“Thank you for your leadership & your friendship,” she said.

“I will be putting myself forward to lead our party & continue the extraordinary work of our Labor government.

“Out of respect for my colleagues & the party process I will not be making further comment before the caucus meeting.”

Ms Allan has been Mr Andrews’ deputy since 2022 and has spent the past nine years leading Victorian Labor’s raft of transport and infrastructure reforms.

She has also been criticised for her role in Victoria’s 2026 Commonwealth Games, which were ultimately scrapped due to significant cost blowouts.

The Australian understands that Ms Allan and any other nominees will be precluded from serving as interim premier, meaning another MP is likely to be elected to that role at Wednesday’s meeting.

Other possible but unlikely challengers for the Victorian ALP leadership include Police Minister Anthony Carbines and Housing Minister Colin Brooks, from the Right, and Treaty Minister Gabrielle Williams and Health Minister Mary-Anne Thomas, from the Left.