Why Dan Andrews has called it quits — and who’ll replace him as Victoria’s Premier

The Liberal Party was never going to beat Dan Andrews, says our Victoria editor Damon Johnston – but now they might just have a chance.

Daniel Andrews leaves a press conference with his wife Catherine after announcing his resignation. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Andrew Henshaw

Feisty. Combative. Defensive.

The last-ever press conference by Victoria’s 48th premier was vintage Dan Andrews.

He said he’d recently begun thinking about life after politics – especially for the three kids whose lives have been dominated by their dad’s job.

“Ultimately, once those thoughts of what life will be like after this role start to creep in, you‘ve got a really important choice to make,” Andrews said.

“You either kind of push on and ultimately, I think, potentially resent the job. And you just never want to do that.”

The journalists in attendance wanted to know why, at the 2022 election, he said he would serve the full four-year term. Andrews couldn’t hide his scorn.

“I‘ll just put it this way: perhaps doing this job requires a lot of hard work. It’s not a complaint. It’s just the nature of it. If you’re going to do it, do it properly. You’ve got to do it to the best of your ability. And it requires a lot, not just to the person whose name’s on the door. It requires a lot of the people that you love,” Andrews said.

Who is Dan Andrews?

The Australian’s Victoria Editor Damon Johnston says Daniel Andrews is the most formidable political leader of his generation.

Premier Daniel Andrews resigns. Tuesday, September 26, 2023. Picture: David Crosling

“He has established himself as the most powerful politician, either federal or state, over the last three or four years, so the significance of today‘s events will reshape not only Victorian politics but Australian politics.”

Why did Dan Andrews resign?

“Being the Premier of Victoria is a massive job. He‘s loved it. He is an innately political human being. He loves politics. He loves the cut and thrust, the ruthless nature of it. But it is exhausting,” Johnston says.

“When he was re-elected for a third time in November 2022, it was always a case of how long will he hang around for? All I would say is that to go just days before the grand final is probably a little sooner than most people expected.

“But he‘s been a big part of politics since being elected in 2002, and I think his legacy will continue to be felt. The profound nature of his leadership will survive for better and worse, long after he has left Parliament at 5pm on Wednesday.”

Andrews said his legacy would be determined by others.

“Leadership is about subjecting yourself to the judgement, the almost continuous judgement of others.”

Who will be the new Victorian premier?

Andrews’ successor will be chosen at a caucus meeting at lunchtime on Wednesday, September 27.

His widely acknowledged heir apparent is deputy premier Jacinta Allan – the current Transport Infrastructure Minister.

She first became a minister in Steve Bracks’ government at the age of just 29 and is a leading light in Andrews’ faction, the Socialist Left.

“Jacinta Allan is the first among equals in the succession of the Victorian Labour Party,” Johnston says.

“There‘s one problem for Jacinta Allan, though: she’s not particularly popular among her Labor colleagues.

“The issue will be, is there enough rancour to unsettle the factional deal that may well have been put in place? I‘m not sure there is.

“There also may not be enough time. [Andrews] has said he will see the Governor at 5pm on Wednesday and tender his resignation from as both Premier and the member for Mulgrave.

“Now, that doesn‘t leave any rivals — and there are some rivals — much time to get votes in caucus.”

Dan Andrews’ political career

Dan Andrews was just 38 years old when he was elected Premier for the first time in December 2014.

Successive wins in 2018 and in 2022 have made him the nation’s longest-serving premier – and cemented his faction, the Socialist Left, as the dominant force in Victorian Labor.

When he surpassed 3000 days in the job earlier this year, he officially qualified for a bronze statue to be erected in his honour.

Dan Andrews never spent a day on the backbench and he’s clocked up a number of big wins in his time.

His government drove compensation reform for victim-survivors of institutional child sexual abuse, and a treaty with First Nations people.

He oversaw the legalisation of voluntary assisted dying in Victoria – an Australian first – and implemented rental law reforms designed to give tenants a leg up in an increasingly challenging market.

Daniel Andrews announces his retirement at Parliament House in Melbourne, watched on by his wife Catherine and kids. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Andrew Henshaw

Andrews nominated his own best moment at yesterday’s press conference – and couldn’t resist a little dig at the journalists.

“None of you were there. It happened Thursday afternoon when I got on the test train at Metro Tunnel with no media. And I went from Arden and I travelled underneath the city at 80 kilometres an hour on a train that was made right here in Victoria,” Andrews said.

“And it‘s not readily apparent because it’s not like a building that springs up out of the ground. It’s literally underground. And when Victorians get to see what I saw on Thursday, I think they’ll be very, very impressed.”

But Andrews’ tenure has been rich with dramas and scandals, too.

In 2018, he controversially inked a 1.5-trillion-dollar deal with Beijing to build major infrastructure across Victoria without the approval of the federal government.

The so-called Belt and Road initiative crumbled following federal intervention just three years later.

He disappeared from public life in 2021 after falling down some slippery steps at a holiday home, suffering six broken ribs and serious spinal injuries that put him off work for months during the Covid-19 pandemic.

That sparked a wave of lingering conspiracy theories – as did a 2013 car accident where a teen cyclist was seriously injured.

More recently, he’s been caught up in allegations of branch stacking, after The Australian revealed one the offices of his closest factional allies had fraudulently extended the memberships of dead people.

There’s the sensational cancellation of the 2026 Commonwealth Games, too.

Andrews said he couldn’t, in good conscience, divert billions of taxpayer dollars away from hospitals and schools to cover the ballooning cost of hosting the sporting event.

Dan Andrews’ controversial Covid-19 strategy

And the decisions that will have the longest-reaching impact: how Andrews handled Covid-19.

“It was the pandemic that really took Andrews onto a national stage. You‘ll recall the 100 odd press conferences in a row,” Johnston says.

“Their main purpose was to help him survive this crisis in a political sense. He needed to be seen to be the action man, the man who was going to fix this mess. And he was proved correct. He was re-elected two years later, but his management of the pandemic was disastrous.

“But of course, while others lost their jobs, the Health Minister and his chief bureaucrat in the fallout from that disaster when it came to his own political skin, resigning would have been, as he described it, a case of cutting and running.

“Victoria needed him to repair the damage that his government had wrought.”

What now for Victoria’s opposition?

Andrews leaves Victorian Labor with three years to prepare for the 2026 election and a whopping majority: 56 seats in the 88-seat parliament.

Opposition leader John Pesutto is struggling, even within his own party.

He was recently heckled over his attempt to throw out frontbencher Moira Deeming, whom he accused of transphobia.

The question now is if the Opposition should also be looking for new leadership.

“One of the points that‘s not recognised enough in analysing the reign of Daniel Andrews and why he’s been so successful is the fact that he’s been up against a shambles of a Liberal Party now for pretty much his entire 13 years as Labor leader,” Johnston says.

“And since he became Premier in 2014, the Liberal Party just hasn‘t got itself together. It’s been riven with factionalism, it’s had policy work, it’s had poor candidates, so, yes, the Liberal Party do need to unite.

“It‘s too early to say if Pesutto is that man. It’s too early to say he’s not. He’s certainly got some internal issues of his own making. But clearly, the Liberal Party was never going to beat Daniel Andrews.”

“Andrews is gone and they‘ll be hoping that they can beat Jacinta Allan or whoever takes over.”

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This is an edited transcript of our daily news podcast The Front, where our journalists speak candidly about their stories. Hear it now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or in The Australian’s app.