Intergenerational report shows next 40-year population growth to be slowest in history
Australia’s population will hit 40.5 million within 40 years, and the tripling of people aged over 85 will heap pressure on the care sector.
Australia’s population will reach 40.5 million within the next 40 years, with the tripling of people aged over 85 predicted to increase the worth of the care sector to 15 per cent of GDP, according to the nation’s latest Intergenerational Report.
The upgraded predictions show 1 million more people will be living in Australia by 2060-61 than previously expected and migration will make up more than half of total population growth.
Despite the addition of more than 14 million people by 2062-63, the report reveals the population will grow at a slower rate in the next 40 years than any other 40-year period since Federation.
The past 40 years saw Australia’s population rise by 1.4 per cent, while the projections contained in extracts of the Intergenerational Report – to be released in full on Thursday – show it will grow by an average of just 1.1 per cent by 2062-63.
Net overseas migration will account for 0.7 per cent of the annual population growth in the same period, falling from 1 percentage point in 2024-25 to 0.6 percentage points in 40 years’ time.
“Population growth will continue to be supported by overseas migration and natural increase, but both are expected to fall relative to the size of the population,” an extract of the report, seen by The Australian, said. The report also revealed the decade to 2020 saw Australia experience the slowest productivity growth in 60 years, pointing to the need for investment in digital technologies and renewable energy.
“The net-zero transformation is creating new markets, disrupting trade patterns and introducing opportunities to lower electricity costs,” the report stated.
“Rising temperatures also present a range of challenges to productivity growth, which increases the importance of planning and investing in adaptability and resilience.”
The immigration statistics provide context to recent Coalition criticism of Labor over the sudden increase in migration following the end of the pandemic. The opposition argues the government has no plan to deal with the pressures such numbers have on housing stock and infrastructure.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the Intergenerational Report showed the population would grow more slowly than before, and the ageing population would mean a bigger care workforce was needed.
“The Intergenerational Report will highlight that growth in the care economy is set to be one of the most prominent shifts in our society over the next 40 years,” he said. “Whether it’s healthcare, aged care, disabilities or early childhood education, we’ll need more well-trained workers to meet the growing demand.”
The report showed life expectancy in Australia was forecast to rise to 87 years for men and 89.5 years for women by 2062-63, compared to today’s rate of 81.3 years and 85.2 years respectively.
A doubling of those aged over 65 and tripling of those aged over 85 will also see the care sector – including aged-care and childcare workers – increase from just 8 per cent of GDP today to 15 per cent in 40 years. “Australians are expected to continue living longer and remain healthier to an older age, while having fewer children. This is leading to an ageing and a slower-growing population,” the report said.
Aged Care Minister Anika Wells said the report demonstrated the need for a sustainable model for the aged-care sector, with measures such as means testing being considered by a government-led taskforce. “There will be challenges and opportunities for the care and support economy, including aged care,” Ms Wells said.
Early Childhood Education Minister Anne Aly said ensuring the country had the adequate childcare workforce would also be critical as the population grew to 40.5 million, which was more than the current population of Canada.
In response to such population growth, Dr Chalmers said the government was working with states and territories to develop a population plan that would consider future needs for infrastructure and housing, and would soon announce proposed reforms to the migration system.
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