Historic victory on cards for ALP in Queensland seat of Ryan

Labor could win the inner-Brisbane seat of Ryan at a general election for the first time in the seat’s 75-year history.

The candidates for Ryan: sitting Greens MP Elizabeth Watson-Brown, Labor’s Rebecca Hack, and the LNP’s Maggie Forrest. Picture: David Clark

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Labor could win the inner-Brisbane seat of Ryan at a general election for the first time in the seat’s 75-year history.

As the count continues, Liberal National Party candidate and barrister Maggie Forrest is leading on primary votes, having secured 35 per cent of first preferences, compared to sitting Greens MP Elizabeth Watson-Brown’s 28.8 per cent and Labor’s Rebecca Hack’s 28.15 per cent.

There are just 1006 first-preference votes separating Ms Watson-Brown – an architect before she ousted the LNP’s Julian Simmonds from the seat at the 2022 election – and Ms Hack, a unionist and former school principal.

Party strategists agree that whichever candidate comes second is likely to win the seat, eclipsing Ms Forrest once preferences are distributed.

Before the election, LNP insiders were predicting Ryan as their best chance of winning back an electorate in Queensland. Labor has held the seat for only eight months since Ryan was created in 1949; the ALP’s Leonie Short won it at a March 2001 by-election before losing it at that November’s general election.

LNP MP for Longman Terry Young. Picture: Steve Pohlner

Labor’s candidate for Longman Rhiannyn Douglas. Picture: Jason Edwards

Counting continues in Longman, in Brisbane’s outer-suburbs, where sitting LNP MP Terry Young is narrowly ahead of the Labor challenger, former high school teacher Rhiannyn Douglas, by 433 votes, on a two-party-preferred basis.

There are some in the LNP who believe sitting MP Luke Howarth still has a chance to retain Petrie, where Labor candidate Emma Comer is leading by 2398 votes on a two-party-preferred basis. Mr Howarth closed the gap by about 500 votes on Tuesday, as postal votes continued to be counted.

While ordinary votes – those cast in the electorate on election day – are favouring Ms Comer 52 per cent to Mr Howarth’s 48 per cent, postal votes are breaking towards the incumbent 55 per cent to 45 per cent.