Election 2025: Seat of Brisbane is Labor’s best chance of Sunshine

Greens-held Brisbane is poised as Labor’s best chance of winning back a seat in Queensland, as LNP Premier David Crisafulli launches an 11th-hour phone blitz in the prized metropolitan electorate.

Sarah Elks and Michael McKenna

Greens Brisbane MP Stephen Bates at the Brisbane City Hall pre-poll voting centre. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen

2 min read

8:08PMMay 02, 2025

Greens-held Brisbane is poised as Labor’s best chance of winning back a seat in Queensland, as Liberal National Party Premier David Crisafulli launches an 11th-hour phone blitz in the prized metropolitan electorate.

A tight three-cornered contest is predicted in Brisbane, one of a trio of seats won by the minor party in the 2022 federal election’s surprise “Greenslide” result in the Queensland capital.

Senior ALP strategists say Brisbane – held by Greens MP Stephen Bates on a margin of 3.73 per cent versus the LNP – is the party’s most likely chance of a win in the state, where it holds just five of 30 electorates.

“All the evidence is that the Greens’ vote is down 3 per cent (in Brisbane) and Labor’s primary vote is up 3 per cent,” one strategist said.

“If we win Brisbane, we’ll be winning it on Greens preferences.”

In 2022, Mr Bates came third in the primary vote, 11 votes behind Labor’s Madonna Jarrett, but leapfrogged the ALP when preferences from the Animal Justice Party and other candidates were distributed.

Labor’s hopes for the seat hang on Ms Jarrett coming second on primary votes behind the LNP’s Trevor Evans, a former Morrison government assistant minister beaten by Mr Bates at the last poll.

While polling conducted by an industry association of 600 voters in Brisbane in the middle of the campaign showed Mr Evans ahead of Mr Bates, 51 per cent to 49 per cent two-party preferred, Labor believes its position has strengthened since then.

The LNP’s Trevor Evans at a News Corp debate. Picture: Annette Dew

Labor’s Madonna Jarrett at the News Corp debate. Picture: Annette Dew

Mr Bates told The Australian he had effectively been campaigning non-stop since he won the seat in 2022, having more than 45,000 “conversations” with Brisbane voters via doorknocking, free barbecues and phone calls.

“We’ve been going hard. I think when someone votes for an MP that’s outside the major parties you have an extra obligation to show people that it was worth it to vote that way … because they are going to do things differently,” he said.

The LNP distributed thousands of “ringless voice messages” from Mr Crisafulli on Friday, imploring voters to back Mr Evans in Brisbane, following up a letter earlier in the week.

While Labor believes it has a lesser chance of winning back Griffith from the Greens’ Max Chandler-Mather, that result relies on the LNP coming third on first-preference votes.

Strategists on the LNP side of the ledger believe the Coalition’s best chance of winning in Queensland is Ryan, where barrister Maggie Forrest is attempting to win back the seat from Greens MP Elizabeth Watson-Brown.

LNP candidate for Ryan Maggie Forrest, a barrister, is attempting to win back that seat from the Greens. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen

Veteran Liberal MP Warren Entsch’s retirement in Leichhardt, in far north Queensland, has given Labor its best chance in 15 years of a win in that seat, with candidate and former professional basketballer Matt Smith’s campaign galvanised by visits from a steady stream of Albanese government frontbenchers.

But the vote in Leichhardt’s remote Indigenous communities in Cape York and the Torres Strait can be difficult to predict, and there are fears the Labor brand is still damaged from the October state election, when the ALP lost three of its four far north Queensland electorates.

Labor candidate for Leichhardt Matt Smith in Cairns. Picture: Brendan Radke

Also in play are the LNP-held seats of Bonner (3.41 per cent) and Mr Dutton’s own electorate of Dickson (1.7 per cent), as well as Labor’s Blair (5.23 per cent).

Aged Care Minister Anika Wells could have her margin of 10.54 per cent reduced in Lilley this time around, given the LNP’s 2022 candidate was referred to the Australian Federal Police during the campaign for providing false information to the Electoral Commission.