Final Newspoll: Anthony Albanese to defy historic major party slump

The final Newspoll of the campaign shows Labor ahead of the Coalition, with a majority of voters claiming they would be better off personally over the next three years under Anthony Albanese.

Anthony Albanese campaigned in Devonport, Tasmania, while Peter Dutton visited Perth. Pictures: Jason Edwards / Newswire / Getty Images

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The combined primary vote of the major parties has fallen to a record low on the eve of the election, with Anthony Albanese on track to be returned for a second term but without any guarantee of securing majority government.

But both leaders will also ­contest the election with deeply negative approval ratings, with both the Prime Minister and Peter Dutton suffering declines in personal support in the final week of the campaign.

The final Newspoll of the ­campaign conducted for The Australian shows Labor ahead of the Coalition with a two party preferred lead of 52.5-47.5 per cent. A majority of voters claim they would be better off personally over the next three years under a Labor government than the Coalition.

As the two candidates for the Lodge made their final pitches to voters on Friday, the Opposition Leader claimed the nation could not ­afford another three years of the economic trajectory it was on under Labor.

“We can’t afford to continue on our current path,” Mr Dutton told The Australian, as he spent his final full day of campaigning swinging through the Perth ­suburbs.

“We’ve had the largest fall in living standards in history, power bills, food and insurance costs are all higher, housing is unaffordable, and our country is less safe.

“The Prime Minister is weak and simply not up to the job.”

Mr Dutton has claimed the nation can not ­afford another three years of the economic trajectory it is on under Labor. Picture: Adam Head/NewsWire

Mr Albanese – who spent his day fighting for votes in Tasmania, Melbourne and Mr Dutton’s northern Brisbane seat of Dickson – said the election presented a clear choice and urged voters to stick with Labor during uncertain times. “This election is a choice,” the Prime Minister told The Australian. “Building Australia’s future under Labor with tax cuts, stronger Medicare, 20 per cent off student debt, 5 per cent first home deposit – or higher taxes, bigger deficits and savage cuts under the Liberals. In uncertain times ­Australians cannot risk the ­Liberals’ chaos … (they) have changed policies daily.”

Mr Albanese is on track to be returned for a second term but without any guarantee of securing majority government.

The final two-party-preferred vote is largely unchanged on the split across the course of the five-week election campaign.

It shows that the contest has returned to the results of the May 2022 election result, when Labor won government with a single-seat majority on a two party preferred vote of 52.1 per cent.

But both Labor and the Liberal/Nationals have suffered a fall in their primary votes in the final week of the campaign, with almost half the nation having already voted.

Labor’s primary vote has fallen a point to 33 per cent which is virtually unchanged on its last election result of 32.6 per cent. The Coalition has also suffered a one point slide in its primary vote since last week with support now sitting at 34 per cent. This would be a ­record low for the Coalition if ­repeated at the election and ­represents a 1.7 point decline from the 35.7 per cent recorded in May 2022.

Mr Dutton speaks with locals during a visit to the South Australian Produce Market in the electorate of Makin on Friday. Picture: Getty

It leaves the combined vote for the two major parties on 67 per cent. At the last election it was 68.3 per cent which at the time was a record low.

The Greens vote has improved two points to 13 per cent – almost a point ahead of its May 2022 election result, with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party still on 8 per cent which is a significant three-point gain on the last election.

The combined vote for other minor parties, including Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots, and independents such as the teals, is unchanged on the last poll at 12 per cent.

This, however, is 2.5 points lower than the last election.

Both major party leaders have also suffered declines in approval over the final week of the campaign.

Mr Albanese on the campaign trail in Devonport, Tasmania. Picture: Jason Edwards/NewsWire

Mr Dutton’s approval rating has fallen a further three points to a low of 32 per cent, with a net negative rating of minus 28. His dissatisfaction rating of 60 per cent is the lowest number for any opposition leader on the eve of an election since Liberal leader Andrew Peacock’s 64 per cent in 1990.

Mr Albanese also went backwards by a point and will go to the election with a net negative approval rating of minus 10 which is only marginally better than Scott Morrison’s approval rating on the eve of the 2022 election.

The head-to-head contest remains unchanged with Mr Albanese leading Mr Dutton 51 per cent to 35 per cent as the preferred prime minister.

The final Newspoll of the election campaign also asked voters whether they believed they would be better off over the next three years under an Albanese led Labor government or a Dutton led Coalition.

Labor won a clear majority on this question – 57 per cent to 43 per cent – with women voters significantly more inclined to support this proposition at 62 per cent compared with 51 per cent of male voters.

Younger voters were also strongly of the belief that a Labor government would leave them better off at 74 per cent, compared with over 65s who backed the Coalition and 50 to 64-year-olds who were evenly split.

In the key demographic of 35 to 49-year-olds, a group commonly accepted as the swinging middle, 56 per cent favoured Labor on this question.

Both the major parties are in the grip of a crisis of confidence with only 39 per cent of voters believing the Albanese government deserved to be re-elected but 62 per cent of voters having little confidence in the Coalition being ready to govern.

The Newspoll survey was conducted between April 28 and May 1 with 1270 voters throughout Australia interviewed online