Election 2025: No counting votes before the night for Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton
In the last hours of the election Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton are leaving nothing to chance, taking no early leave and making no assumption of victory of any kind, as they desperately seek to mould expectations to their advantage.
The Prime Minister is the clear favourite in the published polls and, while not arguing he isn’t going to win, there is a decided attempt to dampen dangerous presumptions of victory with millions of Australians yet to vote.
The Opposition Leader, the clear underdog carrying expectations of defeat, is arguing there are “surprises” in store on Saturday night in reference to Scott Morrison’s “miracle victory” in 2019 against the odds and polls.
Much of what they are saying is about who has “won the campaign” – with little doubt Labor’s fortunes have recovered since the beginning of the year – to either build momentum for voters to go with a winner, as Albanese argues, or to encourage volunteers and supporters that all is not lost and keep fighting to the end, as Dutton argues.
After all, to win the campaign and lose the election is no victory. Better campaigning means nothing if you don’t win the vote and Albanese faces the danger of being seen to have “lost” if he loses Labor’s majority in the House of Representatives.
In the final hours Albanese is addressing the reality of the possibility of a hung parliament and Labor being forced into a minority government – this is a damaging view for voters to adopt who are clearly turning off the Greens and teal Climate 200-backed independents.
“What I’m determined to do is to work every minute of today and tomorrow and work towards getting a majority Labor government,” he declared on Friday.
Arguing that he’s stated it “57 times”, Albanese keeps repeating he will not do deals with Greens or independents because he doesn’t have to. That’s literally correct, there is no need for any written agreement on confidence and guaranteeing supply for Albanese to ask the Governor-General to approve him as Prime Minister.
But, in reality there will be expectations from independents who say they will support a Labor minority government when voting comes on a legislation by legislation basis, particularly when coupled with a hostile Senate.
So Albanese has to say he will win a majority – even though Labor’s primary vote suggests he can’t – and simultaneously say he can deal with independents without worrying voters that his agenda will become even more skewed to the left on climate change and energy.
Dutton’s declaration that “you’ve got a lot of interesting contests playing on the ground” is to give hope to volunteers on election day and boost his own prospects for future leadership should he lose – as expected – but force Labor into minority.
Certainly neither leader is pulling up stumps early on the campaign trail – as Bill Shorten did in 2019 after he’d been told he was going to win – and both are preparing for a long and tense time on Saturday night.
If it’s not a long night one or the other’s fate will be clear, certain and fatal.
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