If Victorian Liberals engaged in the party’s bloody civil war were to put down their swords, Monday’s Newspoll suggests the party is in with a chance of winning next year’s state election.
The survey may have delivered Labor a 53-47 per cent two-party-preferred lead but scratch the surface and there are plenty of positives for the opposition – and one simple but important message; stop fighting each other and start fighting for Victorians.
In a headline sense, the six-point lead appears to show Labor in the box seat to win a fourth term but, in reality, this Newspoll has served up an ugly set of numbers for both Labor and Premier Jacinta Allan.
A 61 per cent personal dissatisfaction rating represents a devastating personal rejection for Allan after voters have had 22 months to assess her style. More broadly, having 59 per cent of voters saying they believe it’s time to give another party a go at running the state indicates they’re itching to send Labor packing.
Disturbingly for Allan – and her ambitious ministers and large backbench – is even 24 per cent of Labor voters believe it’s time to give another party a shot.
This poll is a sobering reality check for Labor MPs as it reveals voters aren’t just ready to kick them and Allan out of office but are open to electing Brad Battin as premier. Based on today’s numbers, it’s not going too far to say the main thing keeping Labor ahead is, in fact, the Liberal Party’s factional feuding. The Pesutto-Deeming clown show has engulfed the Liberals for two years and this survey was conducted between June 23-30 as the crisis once again ripped the party apart.
Against this backdrop, it’s hardly surprising 60 per cent of those polled said they were not confident the Liberal Party was ready to govern Victoria. Even one-in-four Liberal voters said they had doubts about their party’s leadership capacity.
Of prime concern for Allan and the Labor MPs who keep her in the top job will be both her terrible personal satisfaction rating and Battin’s more positive numbers. This result suggests he is emerging as a credible alternative premier. In a remarkable result given the Pesutto-Deeming crisis, Battin commands a 41-36 per cent lead on the “better premier” measure.
It indicates voters, even with their concerns about the Liberal Party, are open to his leadership style and maybe even listening to what he has to say – when they can hear it above factional rivals screaming at each other.
Battin needs warring colleagues – within the parliamentary party and the broader Liberal movement – to give him clear air to allow him to continue establishing himself as a credible alternative premier and the opposition as a credible alternative government.
Sounds straightforward, does it not?
But remember, we’re talking about the Victorian Liberal Party.
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