Even 'safe' seats up for grabs

FOR NSW Labor, the political luxury of a "sure thing" is no more.

FOR NSW Labor, the political luxury of a "sure thing" is no more.

As the state opposition launched its election campaign yesterday with rhetoric that suggested it believed its ascension to government was a foregone conclusion, Labor strategists were busy trying to shore up votes in electorates that have been held by the ALP for decades.

In what is probably the most stark example of Labor's electoral woes, the party has all but given up on holding those seats in which its margin is below 10 per cent.

More than 20 Labor seats that were previously considered to be "extremely safe" - with margins of between 10 and 18 per cent - are now very much in the Coalition's sights.

Indeed, some of the "safe" seats in question have never had a non-Labor member.

Maroubra, which takes in the southeastern coastal suburbs of Sydney, is a classic case in point.

Home to a large number of public housing estates and industrial areas, the electorate has never been on the radar of the Liberal Party until now.

Held by former NSW premier Bob Carr from 1983 until his retirement in 2005, Maroubra has been a Labor seat since it was established in 1950.

But even though the current member, Police Minister Michael Daley, boasts a 16.1 per cent margin, ALP insiders believe there is a strong chance the seat could fall to the Liberals on March 26.

Further south lies the seat of Kogarah, which has been in Labor hands since 1953. It was considered a marginal seat during the 1990s but in the past decade Labor has extended its dominance in the electorate. Local member Cherie Burton enjoys a 17.7 per cent buffer, but even with such a massive lead, the seat is being targeted by the Coalition.

The seat of Charlestown, which takes in Newcastle's southern suburbs, is another electorate that has been in the unbroken grip of Labor since its creation in 1971.

Labor MP Matthew Morris holds it with a margin of 14.6 per cent, but local vet and Liberal candidate Andrew Cornwell has a good chance of breaking the ALP's 40-year stranglehold on the Labor heartland seat.

JAMES MADDEN