Election 2022: Toxic Daniel Andrews proving a headache for Anthony Albanese
The toxic debate over Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews is placing potholes on Anthony Albanese’s path to government.
The toxic debate over Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews is placing potholes on Anthony Albanese’s path to government as the federal Labor leader prepares to campaign alongside Annastacia Palaszczuk, whose standing in the wake of the pandemic response is not expected to be a drag on the ALP vote on May 21.
While West Australian Premier Mark McGowan is a positive for Mr Albanese, there is deep concern about how Victorian tradies, small business people and some ethnic groups in outer Melbourne and the regions will respond to their state’s lockdowns and overall pandemic response.
Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar this week linked Mr Andrews with Mr Albanese in campaigning material in his eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin, claiming “Labor ignores the east” and the party positioned Mr Albanese as Mr Andrews’ puppet.
MPs on both sides of the divide in outer areas in Melbourne have voiced concerns at the negative view of the Andrews government.
“Andrews is certainly on the nose,” said Aston MP Alan Tudge, who also has been using material critical of state Labor.
One senior federal Labor figure said Mr Andrews was “hated” in key outer suburban areas – and while Scott Morrison was not popular, “Andrews is so hated that it is crushing any loathing for Morrison”.
“People just hated the lockdowns,’’ the person said.
The anti-Andrews sentiment is geographical, with inner suburban areas still embracing his leadership, as well as key inner areas in the so-called sand belt region in Melbourne.
The Victorian Labor federal seats most likely to be affected by the Andrews dynamic are Corangamite (Labor 1 per cent), Dunkley (Labor 2.7 per cent) and McEwen (Labor 5.3 per cent).
Although Mr Andrews is prepared to campaign with Mr Albanese, the federal leader’s bout of Covid has played with his schedule and there is no joint event yet pencilled in by strategists, Labor sources have said.
After Sunday’s official Labor campaign launch in Perth, Mr Albanese is planning to return to the eastern seaboard to join Ms Palaszczuk at the Labour Day march in Brisbane on Monday.
Labor’s disastrous performance in Queensland at the 2019 federal election, where its primary vote sank to a low of 26.6 per cent, ensured the Coalition secured 23 of the state’s 30 federal seats and delivered Mr Morrison his “miracle” win.
The Palaszczuk government’s obfuscation and delays to approvals for the Adani mine project were partly blamed on the spiral in Labor’s vote across regional parts of the state.
A year later, the Queensland Premier was returned for a third term in a thumping state election victory, largely on the back of her personal popularity and hardline stance against opening the border at the height of the pandemic.
But Ms Palaszczuk’s popularity has waned this year in the face of a series of integrity-related scandals over the influence of lobbyists and political interference in the public service.
Labor’s ambitions are constrained in Queensland, with party strategists hopeful of picking up two or three seats. Their best chances are Liberal-held Brisbane (5 per cent) and Longman (3.3 per cent).
Ms Palaszczuk went on holidays just after the election was called and her appearance alongside Mr Albanese in the Labor-friendly march and union rally will be the leaders’ first appearance together on the campaign.
A Queensland Labor strategist said Ms Palaszczuk didn’t have the same electoral glow of Mr McGowan or the newly-elected South Australian Labor premier Peter Malinauskas. He said Ms Palaszczuk’s impact was neutral even with her government’s recent scandals, and the timing of her leave was coincidental.
“She is not at her peak with what has been going on in recent months,” the ALP strategist said. “And I can’t say we are champing at the bit to get her out on the campaign trail. While she isn’t a big negative to us, she’s also not an overwhelming positive.’’
Mr Albanese has visited Queensland regularly. On the eve of Mr Morrison calling the election, he and Ms Palaszczuk appeared in Brisbane together, when he said Labor “needed to do better in Queensland”.
He praised Ms Palaszczuk and her government, saying she provided a “bit of a template” for the way forward for federal Labor.
Mr McGowan’s popularity has come off the boil since his election win in 2021 but he still enjoys broad popular support. While WA’s border rules had started to cause some frustration before they were lifted, most of the remaining measures have gone and Mr McGowan can point to having delivered the most successful soft Covid landing of any state.
There are three WA Liberal seats up for grabs: Swan (3.2 per cent), former attorney-general Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce (5.2 per cent) and Indigenous Australians Minister Ken Wyatt’s Hasluck (5.9 per cent).
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