Election 2022: Last-ditch bid to win in Western Australia

Labor strategists expect the party will pick up just two seats at best in Western Australia.

Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese visits a childcare centre in the seat of Hasluck in eastern Perth. Picture: Getty Images

Labor strategists expect the party will pick up just two seats at best in Western Australia, with Anthony Albanese’s last-minute visit to the state signalling concerns about the inroads being made in must-win seats.

The Opposition Leader’s decision to spend the first two days of the final week of the campaign in WA points to both the potential importance of the state in delivering a majority government and Labor’s ongoing anxiety about whether its predicted gains in the west will materialise.

The west had shaped as a key focus for Labor during this campaign, with the emphatic win by Mark McGowan at last year’s state election fuelling a belief both inside and outside the ALP that its long history of underperformance in WA could be about to turn.

After Labor won just five of 16 WA seats at the 2019 election, some in the party had hoped it could snare three or even four more seats in the west if things went well.

Labor insiders now believe the best-case scenario in WA would see the party picking up two seats, and even that is uncertain.

Polling has Labor well ahead in the Liberal-held seat of Swan but only narrowly ahead in Christian Porter’s former seat of Pearce.

The same polling also points to Indigenous Australians Minister Ken Wyatt and Minister Assisting the Prime Minister and Cabinet Ben Morton seeing off concerted challenges for their respective seats of Hasluck and Tangney.

The polling numbers out of Pearce have provided a reminder of the challenge facing Labor in undermining the Liberals’ stronghold in the west.

The various scandals of Mr Porter’s final year in parliament, a ­favourable electoral boundary redraw and its selection of a candidate – City of Wanneroo mayor Tracey Roberts – who came into the campaign with a strong local profile all shaped as favourable factors for Labor in Pearce.

And yet last week’s YouGov poll had Labor holding only a 52-48 lead in the seat.

Labor insiders say picking up two more seats in the west will be a cause to celebrate, given that, alongside expected gains elsewhere in the country, would probably be enough to allow Labor to form a majority government.

Yet it could be argued that a one to two-seat gain is only a moderate return on the significant investment made by Labor in WA during this election campaign.

Beyond bringing Mr Albanese to Perth for the start of this final week, Labor also chose to host its campaign launch in WA for the first time in modern history and opted to hand responsibility for all of its campaign advertising in WA over to its local office.

West Australians have been bombarded with anti-Morrison material designed just for the WA audience.

A growing likelihood of the Liberals retaining a majority of federal seats in WA shows just how tough it can be for Labor to make inroads in a conservative-leaning state, even with a popular Labor Premier in place.

Many lifelong Liberal voters broke ranks and voted Labor for the first time at last year’s state election. Convincing those WA voters to double down and also install a Labor government federally seems to have been a much tougher ask for Labor’s strategists.

On Monday, Mr Albanese visited a childcare centre in Kalamunda, in the electorate of Hasluck, and a pre-poll centre in Pearce.

Luring a leader to WA during the final week is unusual, given the return trip chews up a good 10 hours of time during the busiest period of the campaign.

Whether Scott Morrison follows his opponent’s lead and heads west this week remains to be seen, although Liberal sources in WA say it is being given serious ­consideration.