Deal or no deal? Queensland election horse-trading set to begin

Throughout the campaign LNP leader David Crisafulli (right) has rejected the notion of deals or coalitions of convenience. Premier Steven Miles made the same ‘no deal’ hogwash promise.

As a tired Labor government limps to the line in Queensland, the question is what sort of government will Queenslanders opt for?

Betting markets have installed David Crisafulli as a firm favourite to be the next premier of Queensland but what type of government will he lead? Political punters with an eye for value might consider a 10/1 payout should the LNP form a minority government. For what it is worth, the bookies have offered 8/1 on Labor forming a minority government.

The bookies consider the LNP as $1.12 unbackable favourites to win majority government, terrible odds given that the difference between a LNP majority and minority government appears to be a toss of the coin on the day before the votes are counted.

Throughout the campaign, the LNP leader has rejected the notion of deals or coalitions of convenience with independents and the Katter Australia Party to provide his party with the numbers on the floor of the parliament to ensure supply and confidence.

“We’ve ruled that out, and you can see the way that we’ve conducted ourselves versus the way that (Queensland Premier) Steven Miles has,” Crisafulli told Sky News on Friday.

“They’re horse-trading. They’re doing deals with people who are ideologically, completely opposed to the things that we as Queenslanders want to see.

“I don’t want Queenslanders to wake up on Sunday morning to another four years of this mockery, they’ve been a very bad government.”

This is nonsense, a throwaway piece of hollow bravado uttered in an election campaign that has no practical political meaning.

On the eve of the election, Labor Premier Steven Miles made the same ‘no deal’ hogwash promise. Give me a break. Every now and then, the major parties make commitments that are so laughably false, one is left to wonder if they regard their constituents as mugs, gormless fools and doormats.

With a solitary day left on the hustings, the Courier Mail reported on a ‘leaked’ Labor poll, which revealed that the two Labor-held seats in Townsville – Mundingburra and Thuringowa could fall to KAP on the back of Labor preferences. The LNP is relying on those two seats to form majority government. The leaking of the poll is a piece of political mischief much beloved by Labor where internal polls fall off the backs of trucks for all manner of strategic purposes.

In the Westminster system, should the LNP fail to secure majority government as was expected as recently as two weeks ago when early voting commenced, then it is incumbent on Labor Premier Steven Miles to go to the Queensland governor, Dr Jeannette Young and advise on whether he has the numbers to govern. He can say yes or no at that point and the governor is bound to accept his advice.

If Miles says yes, he will have to try his numbers out on the floor and that means horse-trading with the Greens, at least one independent and possibly the KAP. If his numbers fall short of any real prospect of governing and Crisafulli maintains the line that he will not govern with agreements on supply and confidence from KAP and the indies, another election could be called.

Obviously this will not happen. In the unlikely event that Crisafulli falls a seat or two short of forming a majority and stays true to his pre-election commitment, it would end his political career stone dead. Thus, should the LNP fail to win 13 or more Labor seats, the premier-in-waiting’s incantation will survive until about nine o’clock on election night. Then the phones will be ringing hot and political transactions will begin in earnest.

New hospital in your electorate? Maybe a nice leisure centre with a pool? Now that you mention it, maybe we should be having a look at women’s reproductive rights. Or should we say privileges? Deal or no deal?

The Queensland state election will continue the trend seen nationally and in each state and territory (with the possible exception of Western Australia and the ACT), of declining support for the two major parties. In the 2020 Queensland state election, the combined primary vote of the two major parties nudged 75 per cent of all votes cast.

This is higher than in last year’s state election in NSW where the two majors combined to win 70 per cent of the primary vote. Ditto in the Victorian state election in 2022. At the last federal election, the two majors could summon only 68 per cent of the primary vote.

It would be a bold pundit who would tip the 75 per cent major party primary vote will remain on par when the votes are counted on Saturday night. Clearly, Labor’s primary vote will fall, somewhere between five and eight points.

The Newspoll published on election eve where poll respondents were quizzed earlier in the week, puts the combined major party primary vote figure at 65 per cent with the LNP making up 42 per cent. That seems high to me and I have serious doubts the LNP primary vote will cross the 40 per cent hurdle. But even at 42 per cent, minority government remains a distinct possibility if the LNP can’t win the two vital seats in Townsville.

If the LNP falls short in Townsville and possibly elsewhere, David Crisafulli’s “no deal” pledge will have a political shelf life of less than 24 hours.