Daniel Andrews’ office ordered secret surveys on Covid vaccine rollout

It’s 2021, and lockdown-weary Victorians are rolling up sleeves for vaccinations. Daniel Andrews turns to QDOS to find out what they think about the jab | READ THE SECRET SURVEYS

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews. Picture: Getty Images

The Andrews government commissioned secretive polling about the Covid-19 vaccine rollout, including testing public support for vaccination passports and probing concerns about Victoria shifting from virus elimination to a suppression strategy.

Data and analysis generated by the surveys – conducted by Labor-aligned political intelligence and strategy firm QDOS Research – has been designated by Premier Daniel Andrews’ department as ‘‘cabinet in confidence’’ and blocked from public release.

More than 130 pages of documents and emails released to The Weekend Australian under Freedom of Information laws reveal QDOS conducted extensive vaccine polling using online surveys and focus groups between May and October 2021 amid a national debate about vaccine supply, safety and ongoing restrictions on the unvaccinated.

“Will seek advice from QDOS as to the order of the topics – given there will be a lot of concern about restrictions and vaccinations,” a draft Department of Premier and Cabinet survey document states.

A September 6 email from a de-identified DPC official to QDOS, carrying the subject line “cabinet in confidence: draft discussion topics”, states: “Incentives: Explore attitudes towards a ‘vaccine passport’ which will open up access to dining/travel/events for those fully vaccinated.

“Do people understand the logistics of implementing? For government and for individual businesses?

“Is it fair? Should this be started now to give more freedoms to those vaccinated or should it be held off until those who want to get vaccinated have the chance to do so?’’

The prospect of vaccine passports, which effectively banned the unvaccinated from offices and entering shops, restaurants and other venues, was already being debated when this email was being sent.

Later in 2021, as Melbourne slowly exited from lockdown, the passports, based on mobile phone vaccination records, were enforced.

Emails between QDOS – owned and operated by veteran ALP operative John Armitage, boasts about its ability to ‘‘squeeze, pump and stir’’ public opinion – and the DPC reveal the vaccine surveys also involved a special Victorian government unit known as the ‘‘Behavioural Insights’’ unit.

A June 8 email from a de-identified DPC official references the unit and confirms the Premier’s Private Office (PPO) helped co-ordinate the vaccine surveys.

“I forwarded the attached list of questions that we are looking for insights on – we are keen for Qdos to convert to appropriate language for the discussion guide,” the email states.

“This does not include PPO input as yet, I’ll follow up with (redacted) on this later today or early tomorrow. Focus for the Behavioural Insights team is an understanding of the following – in order of importance.”

The email lists those priorities as barriers to getting vaccinated, concerns about serious side effects and ‘‘how much does lack of choice of vaccine and the AZ brand appointed for this group (50-59) influence their decision”.

“In terms of future scenarios and management of the pandemic – the concern is that Victorians have been so used to seeing zero community cases or perceiving community cases as cause for concern, how will people feel when the majority of the community are vaccinated (70-80 per cent), international borders start opening up, and a level of Covid-19 is allowed to spread in the community,” it states.

 

“In other words if we switch from an elimination to a suppression strategy on the understanding that people who are most vulnerable and the broader community that have opted to get the vaccination have received their two doses, how do people feel about this. I am seeking clarification on this, but I am pretty sure this is the focus.”

About 350 pages of QDOS data, analysis and other material for the May-to-October period have been blocked from public release by the DPC, mostly citing various “cabinet in confidence” provisions.

Shadow special minister of state David Davis called on the government to release the vaccine survey results and the QDOS analysis designated “cabinet in confidence”.

“Daniel Andrews has had Labor fellow travellers QDOS undertake his sensitive and secret vaccine surveys and now he wants to keep these special surveys secret,” he said.

“The results of these sensitive surveys should be released. They should be there for the whole world to see, the raw data and the QDOS analysis. After all, taxpayers paid for it.’’

The Department of Premier and Cabinet defended the failure to release the QDOS vaccine polling. “The QDOS research was crucial to ensuring the Victorian government could implement the best possible public health response to the Covid-19 pandemic,’’ a spokesman said.

“Some of the documents are exempt under the Freedom of Information Act because they were prepared for the purpose of cabinet’s consideration.”

The “Behavioural Insights” team is referenced again in a September 6 email from the DPC to QDOS which canvasses potential questions for a vaccination survey, stating; “For those not intending to get vaccinated in the next few weeks; what do friends and family (those closest to them) think about vaccinations? (BI team request to elicit a less defensive response.’’

QDOS has pocketed close to $3m from taxpayers since 2016 to monitor the views of Victorians for the Andrews government, and conduct research for a range of government agencies.

When the pandemic struck in March 2020, QDOS was quickly thrown into the frontlines by the government. QDOS documents previously released to The Australian suggest that while the Premier always said health advice determined the government’s response, QDOS research helped shape lockdown measures.

During the 112-day lockdown, QDOS surveyed Victorians about their views of specific lockdown measures including the 5km travel limit, the curfew and visitor limits.

In March this year, The Australian revealed there was a political focus to some of QDOS’ pandemic surveys, with the firm monitoring public opinion about the Premier’s performance during the marathon 2020 lockdown.

Among the newly released QDOS documents is an August 31, 2021, email from a de-identified DPC official to QDOS with a draft plan for focus groups in September: “Roadmap out of restrictions – what do people expect this year compared to last year (2nd wave), how has vaccination shifted people’s attitudes, is there a difference between those vaccinated and those not yet vaccinated, where does responsibility lie for getting people to take up vaccines for the benefit of the community etc.”

A June 9 email from a de-identified DPC official to a de-identified minister’s office states: “In terms of priorities, we suggest starting with the Covid outbreak (including quarantine), vaccinations and then future outlook. (Also, we’ll be able to calibrate what we hear about vaccinations with other research we’ve done recently on that.).”

This email also goes on to list “zoom links” so that ministerial staff could watch the QDOS focus groups of Victorians live.

In another June 9 email from a de-identified DPC official to QDOS, further changes to online surveys are canvassed.

“Confirming that we can amend the wording for 3 to remove the reference to lockdown and replace with ‘slow the spread’ as in original doc,’’ it states.

“Change of wording around c. to remove reference to the CHO specifically and to include a reference to lockdowns. ‘It’s been said that 70 per cent need to be vaccinated to slow the spread of the virus. Do you thin … etc.

“Hopefully this will avoid discussions about differences in approach (state/countries) to pandemic management and focus on connection between vaccinations and the virus spread.”

A June 15 email from a de-identified individual – it is unclear who this person worked for – to a range of ministerial and departmental staff reveals a sense of urgency around a new seven-day online survey set for June 18.

“We will need to get this to QDOS by tomorrow morning for programming … I’ve suggested some new items to cover:

“Perceptions of performance on streaming lining the booking process for vaccines; and enforcing check-in requirements at all shops and hospitality.

“Concern about whether supply is keeping up with demand.

“Concern about the international travel ban for various reasons e.g. to see family vs business travel – as a measure of incentive strength for those hesitating to get vaccinated

“Responsibility for various aspects of rollout e.g. communications and encouraging people to get the jab as soon as eligible.

“Confidence in Victorians getting vaccinated as soon as eligible; confidence in enough people getting vaccinated to enable int’l borders to reopen in 2022; concern that people are hesitating and impact of outbreaks on vulnerable people; extent to which people are more concerned about long lockdowns that they are about getting Covid.”