Coronavirus: Lockdown changes to fall short despite job losses

Daniel Andrews is set to disappoint Melburnians and local businesses with a series of lockdown changes that don’t go far enough, industry leaders and health experts warn.

‘The government doesn’t seem to trust us enough to run our businesses safely,’ says Melbourne restaurateur Geoff Lindsay. Picture: Aaron Francis

There is a yawning chasm between what Daniel Andrews is likely to do on Sunday to ease Melbourne’s lockdown rules and what he should do, health experts and industry leaders say.

Yet new ABS jobs data shows the extent of the damage that has been wrought upon Victoria’s economy and its families in the meantime.

The Victorian Premier is likely to offer Melburnians some reprieve, with the 5km travel limit to be extended to 10km or possibly 20km, and outdoor family visits allowed, potentially to a maximum of 10 people.

Allowing some more, but limited, outdoor recreation activities such as tennis and golf to resume is also in the mix.

However, Mr Andrews is set to resist pressure from business groups to open up more broadly, despite the views of some epidemiologists that lockdowns aren’t effective in containing the virus.

He is also unlikely to permit Melbourne’s Years 8-10s back to school a week earlier than their scheduled October 26 return, leaving them in the educational wilderness as the only students in the country not in a classroom.

And while he may relent on ­allowing restaurants to serve a limited number of customers in outdoor settings, their pleas to trust them to deliver appropriately socially distanced indoor dining is almost certain to fall on deaf ears.

So, too, calls from retailers big and small to open, even though many of those forced to close sit alongside supermarkets operating almost as normal.

The impact of the months-long hardline lockdown on the Victorian economy is clearly being reflected in the numbers.

Victoria’s total workforce of 3,224,700 in September is back to where it was in August 2017, Australian Bureau of Statistics jobs data released on Thursday shows, meaning three years of jobs growth has been lost because of the pandemic and the efforts to contain it. The employment-to-population ratio of 58.8 per cent hasn’t been as low in more than 20 years, since May 2000.

Women have been the biggest losers in the employment numbers, ABS data reveals, faring worse than men as jobs numbers improved through June and July, then falling away faster than men as they slumped again in August and September.

 

Melbourne restaurateur Geoff Lindsay, owner of Dandelion in bayside Elwood, says while the government may permit some outdoor dining, it simply won’t work for many restaurants.

“Hospitality has always been a really compliant industry with all the regulations and permits we navigate. And we’ve started to work out the next layers of COVID compliance and safety for our customers and staff,” he said.

“But the government doesn’t seem to trust us enough to run our businesses safely. We feel as an industry we have been singled out.”

Business groups are warning of the economic and human impacts of continuing the lockdown.

Business Council of Australia chief executive Jennifer Westacott urged Victoria to bring forward its timetable to open the economy “so people can get on with their lives and learn to live safely side by side with the virus.

“We need a faster,d more certain timetable so everyone can plan — it’s simply not viable for many people and businesses for Victoria to remain mothballed indefinitely and cut off from the rest of the country,” she said.

Years 8 to 10 in Melbourne are still more than a week away from returning to school, which is having a significant educational and social impact on many teenagers, said Centre for Independent Studies research fellow Glenn Fahey.

“We have to confront the ­reality that we have put students at a serious disadvantage, in Melbourne in particular, and the idea we would continue to pursue this, even for an extra week, is a significant injustice to (them).”

Pressure is mounting on the government to provide relief for retailers, but Australian Retailers Association chief executive officer Paul Zahra is pessimistic significant change will be made.

“We don’t have a clear sense as to what the announcement on Sunday might bring, especially as we still don’t have a plan from the government on exactly how a retail restart would look like,” he said.

“Businesses in NSW are successfully open with COVID-safe measures in place. Every day counts and opening sooner rather than later will help with demand management.”

Epidemiologists also question the continuing lockdown.

“It’s clear on the cost-benefit analysis that lockdowns should be abandoned. The WHO is saying lockdowns are doubling the poverty rate and hurting mental health,” ANU professor of population health Shane Thomas said.