Coalition takes 2PP lead over Labor for first time since Albanese won 2022 election, Newpoll shows

The Coalition leads Labor on a two-party-preferred basis for the first time since the 2022 election in a political boost for Peter Dutton as Anthony ­Albanese’s approval ratings fall to a new low.

Peter Dutton pictured watching the Bathurst 1000 Supercar race on Sunday. Picture: NewsWire / Damian Shaw

The Coalition now leads Labor on a two-party-preferred basis for the first time since the May 2022 election in a significant political boost for Peter Dutton as Anthony ­Albanese’s approval ratings fall to a new low.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the Coalition ahead of Labor 51-49, with an eight-month countdown to the next election.

This is the first time the ­Coalition has led Labor since it lost the 2022 election, cruelling the Prime Minister’s own political benchmark which he set by claiming until now that he had never lost a Newspoll.

The slim lead, however, has come from a slight shift in ­preference flows from minor parties, with the primary vote support for both the Coalition and Labor remaining unchanged on the previous poll.

Labor’s primary vote remains at 31 per cent, which is below the 32.6 per cent recorded at the last election and the equal lowest result for the party in this term in office.

The Coalition’s primary vote was also unmoved at 38 per cent. While two points higher than its last election result, this ­remains several points below the point which strategists assess could alter the election balance in its favour.

Anthony Albanese stands among Greek Orthodox clergy at Kia Arena in Melbourne on Sunday. Picture: NewsWire/Tamati Smith.

The two-point shift in the two-party-preferred vote is the result of a one-point fall in the primary vote for the Greens, to 12 per cent, and a one-point gain for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, taking it to 7 per cent. Support for other minor parties and independents, including the teal independents, was also ­unchanged at 12 per cent.

This is 2½ points lower than the last election result. The latest Newspoll continues the trend ­toward a hung parliament at the next election.

Although the Coalition is now in front on a two-party preferred basis, its lead is not enough to win it enough seats to form a minority Coalition government, with a minority Labor government still the more likely outcome.

The Newspoll comes amid a heated parliamentary week, with the past fortnight dominated by Middle East politics, Palestinian protests amid the one-year anniversary of the October 7 anniversary of the Hamas terrorist attack and accusations that Labor had abandoned Australia’s long-held support for Israel.

With conflict in Australia ­escalating over the Middle East, the Albanese government has been accused of moral cowardice in its equivocation over ­Israel’s right to defend itself against attack.

This led to a week of parliamentary debate over foreign policy, with little attention paid to the economy and living standards.

The first week of the survey ­period covered debate over the cost of living, supermarket prices and Labor’s internal division over negative gearing, with the ­Reserve Banks warning that there would be no relief from high interest rates in the short to medium term. Labor also mounted a fresh campaign to discredit the ­Coalition’s nuclear policy. But with cost of living dominating the minds of most voters, as parliament focused on foreign affairs, both leaders remained deeply in negative territory on the measure of their performance.

Mr Albanese’s approval ratings fell to the lowest level since becoming Prime Minister.

He suffered a significant three-point fall in his satisfaction ratings to 40 per cent and a three-point rise in dissatisfaction to 54 per cent.

His net negative approval ratings worsened to minus 14, which is the lowest score for Mr Albanese. His previous worst result was minus 13.

His overall approval ratings are now equal to those of Mr Dutton.

Mr Albanese’s disapproval rating, however, is higher than that of Mr Dutton at 54 per cent compared to 52 per cent.

Mr Dutton’s approval rating lifted one point to 38 per cent.

The head-to-head contest over who would make the better prime minister also tightened, with Mr Albanese losing a point to 45 per cent with Mr Dutton remaining on 37 per cent.

The narrow eight-point margin is the equal best result for Mr Dutton since the election. The latest Newspoll was conducted between October 7 and October 11 and surveyed 1258 voters nationally through online surveys.