Simon Benson
Anthony Albanese has lost the Newspoll 2PP lead at the worst possible time for his government
Labor is appearing increasingly desperate, divided and politically adrift.
Its legislative agenda has been up-ended, with a Senate becoming increasingly hostile to the government’s contested agenda.
And with cost of living taking a back seat to debate over Middle East politics, Labor continues to lose touch with the electorate’s key concerns.
It should be no surprise that the consequence of all this is that Labor has lost an important psychological advantage.
For the first time since the election, Labor trails the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis.
The numerical movement is small but the shift in the political dynamic is significant.
Momentum has shifted away from the government at the worst possible time.
This outcome has been beckoning for months. The two-party-preferred contest for the past three months has had both parties locked at 50-50.
Anthony Albanese’s brazen claims to date, to have never lost a Newspoll, have now evaporated.
Setting such a benchmark was foolish and dangerous, claim several of his colleagues.
By doing so, the Prime Minister established a point of political failure.
That has now been reached. How does he now explain this to the caucus, when his own political capital and authority continues to be eroded?
Labor’s primary vote of 31 per cent is perilously low.
But it is coupled with a decline in Albanese’s own personal approval ratings. They are now at their lowest level.
Equal to those of Peter Dutton.
Plenty of prime ministers before him have had approval ratings this low and recovered but the trend for Albanese heading towards an election is demonstrably on the downside.
There has been no sign of it being arrested.
This goes to his leadership, which will be a critical factor in the campaign.
But Dutton shouldn’t be celebrating just yet.
While the two-party-preferred lead will boost the morale of his side, the reality is more sobering. The Coalition is in front by only the slimmest of margins.
The 51-49 lead is a fragile one, at best.
And this is because the underlying primary vote support for both major parties remains unchanged. The same primary vote numbers, 31 for Labor, 38 for the Coalition, produced a 50-50 two-party-preferred split in the last Newspoll.
The difference is a subtle shift in support for left-wing and right-wing minor parties that have altered the preference flows.
The Coalition’s lead has come by virtue of a one-point fall for the Greens, which favour Labor, and a rise for One Nation.
The scales could as easily tip back in Labor’s favour next time.
Dutton will be able to rejoice in winning his first Newspoll since becoming Opposition Leader but to maintain this lead, and to put the Coalition on to a competitive election footing, he needs to get a four in front of the Coalition’s primary vote.
And there is no sign yet of that happening, with Dutton suffering from the same disease as Albanese.
Both are talking about everything but the things that matter most to voters.
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