Coalition asks CSIRO to re-run modelling on costs of nuclear power

The Coalition has asked the CSIRO to re-run its modelling on the cost of nuclear power, arguing last week’s GenCost report does not accurately reflect how large-scale nuclear plants are operated.

Opposition energy spokesman Ted O’Brien. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Opposition energy spokesman Ted O’Brien has asked the CSIRO to re-run its modelling of the cost of nuclear power after last week’s GenCost report found a large-scale plant would be more expensive than renewables, and take at least 15 years and about $8.6bn to build.

Mr O’Brien made the request on Monday in a virtual meeting with Doug Hilton, the chief executive of the CSIRO, following the release of the 2023-24 GenCost report which estimated the cost per megawatt hour for a large-scale nuclear power plant at $141-$233.

Ahead of the release of the ­Coalition’s nuclear energy plan, which Peter Dutton initially flagged would be before the budget, Mr O’Brien argued there were three flawed assumptions in the CSIRO’s report which meant its conclusions were not accurate.

First, he took issue with the ­assumption a nuclear power plant would be used “between 53 per cent and 89 per cent of the time”. Mr O’Brien asked for the CSIRO to model a capacity factor of 92.7 per cent, which he argued was the average performance of the US nuclear power fleet.

Second, he pushed for the CSIRO to change its assumption that a nuclear power plant would have a lifespan of 30 years. Mr O’Brien said a plant built today would have a design life of 60 years and an expected life of 80 years. Third, Mr O’Brien took issue with the CSIRO’s assumption that the earliest a nuclear power plant would enter service would be 2040, asking that the CSIRO model a start date of 2035.

“On releasing GenCost, CSIRO welcomed critical feedback. It was in that spirit which I spoke to the agency, and it was a productive discussion,” he said. “Given the purpose of GenCost is to assess ­alternative policy options, it should accurately reflect how zero-emissions nuclear power plants are used around the world today and how they would be ­deployed and operated in Australia.

“If CSIRO were to run the numbers accordingly, it would more accurately reflect the likely cost of zero-emissions nuclear power in Australia. I have seen first-hand around the world that zero-emissions nuclear energy gets prices down as part of a balanced mix of technologies.”

Labor last week seized on the GenCost report, with Energy Minister Chris Bowen saying it revealed that nuclear power was a “risky diversion” and was the “most expensive form of energy”.

However, the Centre for Independent Studies released analysis on Monday about the cost of nuclear power with what it called “more credible assumptions regarding asset life, capacity factor, and fuel costs”. The classical Liberal think-tank said that once the assumptions were changed, it brought down the most probable nuclear cost estimate down to $130/MWh.