Energy policy is yet again set to become a dominant and contested feature of the next election.
But unlike Scott Morrison, who was hamstrung by an inherent policy contradiction, Peter Dutton won’t be encumbered by ambiguity.
The Liberal leader will take a policy to the election that is based on a starkly different alternative to what the Coalition claims is Labor’s renewables fantasy.
It will indeed include renewables – but renewables firmed by nuclear power.
Dutton has floated the idea since being elected leader. But it is no longer just an idea. This is becoming perceptible policy. And it has the potential to up-end the energy debate.
Dutton is leading the policy development with his energy spokesman Ted O’Brien. It is well advanced.
The Australian understands it will identify at least six sites across Australia for small modular nuclear reactors.
Work on the cost benefit is being developed – with the equation based largely around the savings to families on power bills through the reliability guarantee for the national energy market.
There is a growing view within the Coalition that the Albanese government can’t reach its 2050 net-zero target with any credibility, based on its existing policy position.
There is scope and a growing appetite for an alternative model.
The Coalition’s nuclear policy would be based on brownfield sites vacated by decommissioned coal-fired power stations that can jump straight into the existing transmission network. The geographic footprint of these power plants in comparison to wind and solar farms is minuscule.
Dutton’s policy would also resolve the secondary political debate that has become a significant problem for Albanese and Energy Minister Chris Bowen – electricity distribution and transmission.
This is significant.
The community opposition to new transmission lines to accommodate Labor’s wind farms – including across Labor-held seats – is bordering on fanatical.
The exiting of coal is accelerating at a rate that undermines the integrity of the market.
The Victorian blackouts this week have brought the issue back into focus.
The reality that Labor refuses to confront is that 75 per cent of the national electricity market – being predominantly the east coast of Australia – is still underwritten by coal and gas.
Dutton’s plan will be two-fold. To extend coal and gas before a transition to nuclear by the mid to late 2030s.
While community attitudes have shifted significantly in favour of nuclear power over the past decade, and even more so since AUKUS and the nuclear submarine program, the politics remain challenging.
Morrison was close to announcing a nuclear policy before realising he didn’t have the political capital to carry it and the polling on nuclear wasn’t convincing enough.
But the world is shifting. The uranium price is now at record levels. The reason is obvious – there is a growing appetite for nuclear power in most advanced economies. If you exclude New Zealand and Australia, it is almost all advanced economies.
That is not to say Dutton doesn’t face an as-yet-unknown political challenge around this issue. Yet Coalition MPs are less concerned than they may have otherwise been about a localised scare campaign from Labor on nuclear. So much so that some Nationals MPs are now openly advocating for SMRs to be built in their Queensland and NSW electorates.
But the political risk for Albanese on energy policy is equally profound, if not more pronounced.
The Prime Minister will visit the Hunter Valley on Friday to deliver a speech on his renewable energy and critical minerals strategy to an electorate that hosts the largest coal-loading port in the world and has become palpably hostile to Labor’s plans for offshore wind farms.
A micro-contest that epitomises the broader challenge exists in this very region: the future of the decommissioning of the Liddell power plant. This is a prime location for a nuclear SMR under the Coalition; Albanese would like to use it for renewables.
Albanese’s vision, which is anchored to a critical minerals strategy for renewable energy, however, has been spectacularly undermined by BHP’s decision on Thursday ahead of the Prime Minister’s speech, to mothball its nickel operations in Australia.
And as we know, nickel is a key component of the batteries required to power Bowen’s electric vehicle revolution.
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