Climate 200 identifies nine target seats for the next election

Political funder Climate 200 has identified at least nine seats it will target at the next election, including Bradfield where it believes Lib frontbencher Paul Fletcher is vulnerable.

Liberal frontbencher Paul Fletcher. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Climate 200 has identified at least nine seats it will target at the next election – all of which were won by the Coalition in 2022 – including the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield, where it believes Liberal frontbencher Paul Fletcher is vulnerable following a draft redistribution.

Some Liberal Party members were privately pushing on Monday for the state executive to hold a vote to reopen several preselections across NSW following last week’s proposed changes to the state’s electorate boundaries from the Australian Electoral Commission.

This could reopen contests in seats such as Bennelong and Parra­matta if the state executive failed to re-endorse the already selected candidate by a vote of 75 per cent or more, although The Australian understands this is an unlikely outcome.

One Liberal source said recent comments from Peter Dutton taking aim at Labor’s 2030 climate targets were “harmful” and “unnecessary” but questioned the ability of the teals to replicate their success at the next election, given Labor was now in power and Scott Morrison was no longer prime minister.

Climate 200 executive director Byron Fay on Monday said there was “no doubt Peter Dutton’s reignition of the climate wars has re-energised support for community independents” and there was a “palpable” dissatisfaction with the major party duopoly.

“Last weekend, we saw a 20-fold bump in donations and the pace hasn’t let up,” Mr Fay said.

Climate 200 said its goal was to support 30 campaigns at the next election and more than $1m had been raised in two months in “early stage support” in seats where community independents had come close to winning in 2022.

In the nine seats identified as targets by Climate 200, community groups that met criteria for financial support would now start to receive grants of up to $50,000 to develop their own campaigns.

The seats targeted include McPherson and Moncrief on the Gold Coast as well as Fisher and Fairfax on the Sunshine Coast, with the latter being held by opposition climate spokesman Ted O’Brien, who is piloting the Coalition’s nuclear power plan.

In addition to seeking breakthroughs in Queensland, Climate 200 is aiming to pick up the Nationals-held seat of Cowper on the NSW north coast, Bradfield in northern Sydney and three seats in Victoria, including the regional seat of Wannon held by opposition immigration spokesman Dan Tehan.

The other Victorian targets include the seat of Casey held by Aaron Violi and the seat of Mon­ash held by Russell Broadbent, who defected from the Liberals to the crossbench in November.

Climate 200 sources were optimistic about their prospects in Bradfield. They noted the seat had voted yes to the voice in last year’s referendum and that independent candidate Nicolette Boele had achieved a 15.6 per cent primary swing against Mr Fletcher in 2022 – a bigger swing than any other candidate supported by Climate 200.

A senior Liberal source conceded Mr Fletcher would “be in for a fight” at the next election, although he had been preparing to face off against an independent for the last two years.

Director of strategy and analytics at Redbridge Kos Samaras said the proposed redistribution had cut Mr Fletcher’s margin from 4.2 per cent to 2.5 per cent.