Bureau of Meteorology and federal government back Cyclone Jasper flooding forecasts

The Bureau of Meteorology has stood by its rain forecasts on the aftermath of Tropical Cyclone Jasper, as improved weather on Tuesday saw the clean up of far north Queensland begin.

Anthony Albanese and Queensland Premier Steven Miles at the Kedron Emergency Centre in Brisbane on Tuesday. Picture: Dan Peled / NCA NewsWire

The Bureau of Meteorology has defended its forecasting in the aftermath of Tropical Cyclone Jasper, which dropped a “unpredictable” volume of rain across Queensland’s far north.

Up to 2m of rain fell on Cape York Peninsula after the category-3 storm crossed the coast last Wednesday. Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Laura Boekel said the weather situation “evolved quickly” at the weekend.

“We did have a lot of lead time for that tropical cyclone and the flooding in the aftermath of that,” Ms Boekel said.

“However, it was the rain rates that evolved very quickly over the weekend.

“We used the best science to make those predictions and we had to change that warning strategy quite quickly into the weekend, as we got more information that those rain rates were likely to be higher than initially predicted.”

The bureau does not have dedicated meteorologists or hydrologists in Cairns, with the closest team 350km away in Townsville. This has been slammed by local mayor Michael Kerr, who warned the forecasters didn’t know “the lay of the land”.

Federal Emergency Management Minister Murray Watt backed the agency, saying “meteorology is not a perfect science” and that he “100 per cent” stands behind their forecasts over the past weekend.

“This proves the point that there are sometimes weather systems that, even with the best will in the world and the best possible science, can’t be absolutely predicted down to the precise detail,” Senator Watt said on Tuesday.

While one 85-year-old man remains missing in Degarra, Senator Watt said it is “remarkable” no lives have been confirmed lost.

“It is pretty remarkable that in an event of this scale, we have not yet lost a life or (had) a serious injury. So I’d ask people to keep it in perspective about the Bureau of Meteorology; they do the absolute best they can.”

Tuesday marked a shift to recovery as weather conditions improved. The first 120 residents trapped in the remote Indigenous community of Wujal Wujal were flown 70km north to Cooktown after two Australian Defence Force CH-47 Chinooks from Townsville were able to access the area north of Port Douglas for the first time since the disaster began.

A further 32 communities isolated by floodwaters were expected to be accessed on Tuesday.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Queensland Premier Steven Miles are expected to fly into the region on Thursday afternoon and Friday.

Mr Miles said all major roads north of Port Douglas were significantly damaged, but he urged “resilient” far north Queenslanders to stand together.

“We will be there with them during this clean-up, disaster assessments and then moving into the recovery phase,” he said.

The damage bill from the disaster is expected to climb in the coming weeks as floodwaters recede. Early assessments of damage across the region have found one home has been completely destroyed, 15 were severely damaged, 50 are moderately damaged and 92 show minor damage. Insurers have received almost 1870 claims, according to the Insurance Council of Australia.

Cairns Airport was able to open on Tuesday morning for the first time in six days. However, services were considerably disrupted, with more than two dozen flights cancelled or delayed.