Bureau of Meteorology ‘could not predict scale of disaster’

The Bureau of Meteorology has been accused of issuing inaccurate and incomplete warnings about the monster rain event that battered far north Queensland, causing chaos across the far-flung region.

Laura Boekel, senior meteorologist with BOM, flanked by Queensland Premier Steven Miles. Picture: David Clark

The Bureau of Meteorology has been accused of issuing inaccurate and incomplete warnings about the monster rain event that battered far north Queensland, causing chaos across the far-flung region.

Leading the criticism, Douglas Shire Mayor Michael Kerr said: “We need to have forecasts closer to what is going on.”

On Saturday, the bureau was predicting that Cairns faced “possible heavy falls” of 30mm to 130mm. Instead the city of 130,000 received 268mm on Sunday, a record-breaking amount. No fewer than 12 locations across far north Queensland posted record rainfall totals.

By Sunday morning the weather alert for Cairns had been upgraded to a severe thunderstorm warning, involving life-threatening flash flooding for Cairns, Redlynch and the nearby Aboriginal community of Yarrabah.

A major flood warning for the Barron River north of Cairns was issued at 10.47am, predicting the possibility of major flooding at Cairns airport on Sunday afternoon. The bureau noted that up to 513mm of rainfall had been recorded over the Barron River catchment in the 24 hours to 9am Sunday.

That was soon upgraded to warn that the Cairns airport flood levels would exceed 1977 levels by Sunday afternoon.

By 5.08pm on Sunday, the bureau had issuing a warning for the large area between Wujal Wujal, on Cape York, and Babinda, south of Cairns, of “heavy, locally intense rainfall with dangerous and life-threatening flooding” and alerting that six-hourly rainfall totalled up to 300mm.

Federal Emergency Management Minister Murray Watt conceded on Monday that the bureau’s forecasts were not “perfect” but he retained confidence in the agency.

Senator Watt said the weather system was unpredictable and despite this the bureau’s alerts had been reliable during the emergency sparked when Tropical Cyclone Jasper slammed into the coast last Wednesday and then stayed put, dumping rain on far north Queensland.

“The bureau did a fantastic job forecasting Cyclone Jasper, it was slow-moving and very unpredictable, not a perfect science,” he said.

Queensland’s new emergency text message system, which was used for the first time in a cyclone, also came under criticism for its glitches during the disaster. Senator Watt said the National Emergency Management Agency, which oversaw the new warning system, needed to be better aligned with local councils.

“Clearly, it fell short this time and we need to make sure that it improves in the future,” Senator Watt said.

Asked whether the bureau gave the region enough warning, Premier Steven Miles said it had done the best it could given the nature of the storm.

“I think the bureau gave a lot of the notice and warning that they thought based on the information that was available to them,” he said. “It couldn’t be predicted based on their systems … just how much rain would fall overnight and they do the best they can.”

Cairns Regional Council Mayor Terry James said the once-in-100-year weather was unpredictable, given initial forecasts showing the ex-tropical cyclone quickly moving into the Gulf of Carpentaria after making landfall last week.

“I don’t know if anyone could have predicted that,” Mr James said. “It got to the Cape and just stopped. All the stars aligned into a perfect storm.”

On Monday afternoon, BoM officially cancelled Queensland’s severe weather warning after rain eased and flooded rivers began to recede. However, BoM senior meteorologist Laura Boekel said storms could still bring significant falls. “While that widespread, very intense rainfall is moving on, there is still shower and storm activity in the area, which can still drop a significant amount of rainfall, just not what we have seen in the past 24 hours,” Ms Boekel said.

Queensland police commissioner Katarina Carroll said the major flooding had taken everyone by surprise and the volume of rain overnight on Sunday was unexpected.

“The volume of rain that came yesterday was certainly unexpected and obviously the rescue started after that,” Ms Carroll said.

“Alerts obviously support that as soon as the weather starts changing. Even the briefs yesterday (Sunday) were changing every 15 minutes, so this is the challenge you have … to react so quickly and in a timely fashion.”