Aston by-election: Test of success for Peter Dutton wide of the mark

A loss in Aston on the back of the NSW election defeat would see many of his colleagues pushing the panic button on Peter Dutton’s leadership. Picture: Martin Ollman

Peter Dutton will face the first measurable test of a damaged ­Liberal brand since the election when voters in the Victorian seat of Aston head to the polls on ­Saturday.

While all indications are that the party should just hold on, no one in Camp Dutton is overly ­confident.

The stakes are high. This will no doubt be cast as a judgment on Dutton’s leadership should the seat fall to Labor for the first time in 33 years.

But it is also a test for the ­Albanese government. Has the cost-of-living squeeze started to bite politically?

The consequences for Dutton are obvious. A loss on the back of the NSW election defeat last weekend would see many of his colleagues pushing the panic button.

Liberal candidate Roshena Campbell campaigns in the federal seat of Aston on Thursday. Picture: Aaron Francis

It would, of course, have a ­material impact for the next election considering the party is ­already at its lowest level of representation since it was formed.

It’s no surprise that the key competing issues are cost of living and Dutton himself: the Liberals campaigning on the former, and Labor drilling hard into the apparent unpopularity of the Liberal leader in Victoria and trying its best to resurrect the spectre of Scott Morrison.

There are multiple variables in play. Canberra’s immersion in a debate over the voice isn’t one of them. The community feedback on the ground is almost solely ­focused on cost of living and local infrastructure – the normal stuff of mortgage-belt families.

And the politics of cost of living can go in a party’s favour or against, depending on the prescription. In an environment where a handout mentality prevails, it would be expected to be good for Labor. If it’s sound economic management, then it would tend to favour the Coalition.

It’s hard to know where the electorate is up to in the broader expectations of governments amid the current inflationary and interest rate crunch.

And it’s probably too early into Anthony Albanese’s term for ­residual anger to be expressed at the ballot box on Saturday.

But Albanese is trying to create a false benchmark for success by suggesting if the Coalition doesn’t engineer a swing towards it of more than 5 per cent, then it will be a failure for the Liberal Party.

This is nonsense.

If any of the polling being leaked ahead of Saturday is believable, the best comparison according to some Liberals is the Griffith by-election in 2014, triggered by the retirement of Kevin Rudd.

The demographics of the inner-Brisbane seat might be ­vastly different to the mortgage-belt electorate of Aston in outer suburban Melbourne, but the mechanics of the poll are similar.

Both by-elections, triggered by the departure of high-­profile local members, came ­within 12 months of a newly ­elected government from the ­opposing side.

While Labor held on to Griffith, it suffered a swing of just under 2 per cent towards the newly elected Abbott government, which was still enjoying a honeymoon phase of sorts.

One poll doing the rounds, presumably from the Labor camp, has the Liberals hanging on to Aston but with a swing towards the ­Albanese government of about 0.2 per cent.

This would produce a similar swing trend outcome to Griffith, indicative of an electorate that has yet to cast a negative judgment on a federal Labor government only 10 months in office.

Aston is also a test for Anthony Albanese’s government and whether the cost-of-living squeeze has started to bite politically. Picture: Getty Images