Geoff Chambers
Chris Minns’s victory gives Labor control of the mainland, and Libs are now preparing for Aston
Chris Minns’s thumping election victory is the final nail in the coffin of the Liberals and Nationals on the mainland, and puts an exclamation mark on Labor’s political dominance over the Coalition.
A devastating and predicted collapse in support for Dominic Perrottet’s government after 12-years of Coalition rule means Labor now controls eight of nine federal, state and territory governments.
The scale of last year’s federal election rout had removed the rose-coloured glasses of Liberal strategists, who knew what was coming. They were optimistically hoping the bloodbath wouldn’t be as bad as their worst nightmares. Coming only 10-months after Scott Morrison’s Liberals were trounced by the teals and Labor, the road back for the Coalition will be long and arduous.
Peter Dutton had nothing to gain from involving himself in the NSW campaign. If he had turned up, left-wing commentators and Labor would’ve blamed him. Dutton was also desperate to avoid any potential of contagion spreading to next Saturday’s crucial by-election in the Liberal-held Melbourne seat of Aston.
The Liberal Party’s federal election review, led by Brian Loughnane and Jane Hume, laid bare the toxic nature of the party’s state divisions, which are gripped by ugly internal battles, ageing and dwindling membership bases and systemic failures to modernise and democratise preselection processes.
The review also focused on the importance of holding inner-city electorates and winning back seats lost to teal independents backed by the cashed-up Climate 200 group. Lessons will be learned as to the effectiveness of the campaign strategy adopted by Perrottet and Matt Kean, who Liberal critics blame for shifting the party too far to the left.
With all Australian jurisdictions (excluding Tasmania) now painted red, Coalition strategists have 17-months to hatch their recovery plan.
Between August and October next year, voters in the Northern Territory, ACT and Queensland will head to the polls. In 2025, there will be federal, WA and Tasmanian elections. Elections in Victoria and South Australia are not due until 2026.
But Australian election tragics only have to wait seven days for their next political fix, with the Aston by-election looming as an important leadership test for Dutton.
When Albanese and ALP national secretary Paul Erickson defended the southern NSW seat of Eden-Monaro in 2020, both understood the stakes. Labor poured cash and manpower into the seat to ensure victory and avoid leadership murmurs.
Dutton and Liberal Party federal director Andrew Hirst are facing a similar risk. While they expect to win Aston, there is nervousness inside the ranks.
A second by-election looms in the southern Sydney seat of Cook amid informed rumours Morrison will pull the pin in coming months. There are growing expectations other veteran Coalition MPs of the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison era are planning their exodus from key seats ahead of the 2025 election.
Federal Liberals and Nationals will pore over every issue, voting trend and policy success from the NSW election.
The rise of independents and minor parties, coupled with the federal preferential system, is now an existential headache for the Coalition. If they can’t find a united way to respond, they’ll be stranded in the political wilderness.
Wall-to-wall mainland Labor governments present a different concern for ALP strategists. With the federal and NSW elections reeking of an “it’s time” factor, the ALP’s dominance will gradually erode from the pitfalls of incumbency, external factors, scandals and mistakes.
The Coalition’s winning formula must focus on growing its membership base, sharpening its political messaging, attracting better candidates including more women, and developing policies that appeal to inner-city, outer suburban and regional voters. No easy feat. Failure to modernise will see the Coalition languish.
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