Anthony Albanese’s election mind games have put Peter Dutton on to a war footing

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and Nationals leader David Littleproud at a farmers rally in Canberra on Tuesday. Picture: Martin Ollman / NewsWire

Peter Dutton is not buying that Anthony Albanese will hold a March budget and run full term.

The incumbent Prime Minister holds the cards in the perennial election date stand-off, which means the Opposition Leader must be ready to go by November.

The Coalition will have policies, candidates and campaign infrastructure in place on the outside chance Albanese pushes the button for a December 7 poll.

With the Reserve Bank unlikely to move on the cash rate until at least February, senior ALP operatives are indicating the government’s preferred election date is March. Amid fears of a hung parliament, the objective for Labor is clear: “Call it when we can win.”

This time last year – ahead of the doomed Indigenous voice referendum – Albanese was eyeing a 2024 election. Early election planning was put on ice as the Albanese government fell into a cost-of-living and political funk.

Liberal sources say they are “ready for all contingencies … there is a higher level of alert on our side and we have to assume that they may call a December 7 election”.

While December is unlikely, a campaign overlapping the March 8 West Australian election is looming as a favoured option.

If Albanese goes in March, he would need to call the election at the end of January. The shortest campaign period allowed from the writ being issued is 33 days. Shorter campaigns are typically around 35 days.

If a federal election was called on the same day as WA, the state’s electoral laws allow Premier Roger Cook to consult with Opposition Leader Shane Love about moving dates.

Unlike Steven Miles, who is on track for a heavy defeat at the Oct­ober 26 Queensland election, Cook inherits Mark McGowan’s historic majority that will likely deliver him victory albeit with fewer MPs.

ALP sources are confident Labor will maintain 2022 election gains in “Fortress WA”, which delivered Albanese majority government. With healthy margins in Hasluck, Swan and Pearce, Labor is confident of holding all seats and winning the new Bullwinkel electorate.

Coalition strategists, who are confident they can wrestle back Tangney and the teals-held Curtin, say “it’s important that we temper expectations that we’ll easily win back four to five WA seats”.

“There are expectations of massive swings back to us but there is still a lot of work to do. What helps us this time is there is no McGowan effect, no Clive Palmer, no Covid fallout effect,” a source said.

Jim Chalmers – who is desperate for rate cuts before the election – has dodged questions about pre-election budget timing. The RBA has meetings scheduled next year on April 1 and May 20, close to the date of a full-term election.

An April election is complicated by the Easter holidays and Anzac Day long weekend.

The Treasurer last week said he was planning a pre-election budget but would not confirm when. His immediate focus is the mid-year budget update, which will include an election warchest and provide Albanese with the firepower ahead of a projected tight contest. “There’s been some speculation I think around March or something to allow for a May election. I’ll deliver a budget when the Prime Minister wants me to do that,” Chalmers said. “We’ll be ready to deliver a budget the following year when we agree the date with the Prime Minister.”