Albanese government prepares for early budget before election

Senior Labor figures are ­already planning for the March budget, which has been brought forward from May ­because a budget cannot be ­delivered after parliament has been dissolved in the election lead-up.

Anthony Albanese is preparing for an early 2025 budget in March. Picture: NewsWire / Nikki Short

The Albanese government is preparing for an early budget in March as a precursor to a federal election in May.

Senior Labor figures are ­already planning for the March budget, which has been brought forward from the usual May timeframe ­because a budget cannot be ­delivered after parliament has been dissolved in the election lead-up.

The formal confirmation of a March budget and the election window for half the Senate and the House of Representatives will be revealed when the government produces the parliamentary sitting calendar for 2025 in the September or October sitting weeks of this year.

The plan for the March budget – Jim Chalmers’ fourth since the Labor government was elected in 2022 after the Treasurer delivered an out-of-cycle October budget that year – confirms Anthony ­Albanese’s long-term plan to serve as much of his first term as possible before calling an election.

A March budget-May election combination would be similar to the 2019 arrangements when ­Liberal treasurer Josh Frydenberg handed down a budget on April 2, shortly before parliament was dissolved for a May 21 election, at which the Morrison government was re-elected.

The rejection of early election speculation, which the Prime Minister has always played down and even ridiculed, and the preparation of a pre-election budget will govern the tone of politics, economic debate and parliamentary sittings for the rest of the ­Albanese government’s term.

Election and budget timings also change the processes and procedures of the public service and affect business decisions.

While cost-of-living pressures remain the top priority for voters and will continue to dominate the political debate, the plan for a March budget will give the government the opportunity, it hopes, to point to an improving economic outlook with rising wages, moderating inflation and possibly an ­interest-rate cut ­before May.

Thursday was effectively the final chance to declare an early election for this year because of electoral timing laws, the Queensland election on ­October 26, King Charles’s first royal visit as ­sovereign, Mr Albanese’s renewed commitment for essential travel including Indonesia and Samoa, and the Christmas holiday season.

There has been speculation for months about an election as early as August or September if ­inflation fell and the Reserve Bank cut interest rates or after a cabinet reshuffle or a jump in the polls. But Mr Albanese, while never ruling out an early election, has ­repeatedly argued for a “full term” and said the election would be held next year.

A half-Senate election must be held by mid-May and although the House of Representatives election can be held back until September 2025, it will be held at the same time in May, probably on May 10 or 17.

Electoral laws state there must be a minimum 33 days ­between the issue of the writs for an election and the Saturday polling day – in ­practice it tends to be more like 35 or 36 days – and so an election in September is already impossible. For the same reason, the first Saturday of October is ruled out.