Anthony Albanese exorcises Bill Shorten tax ghosts

Labor leader Anthony Albanese in Brisbane on Monday. Picture: John Gass

Under the cover of a global pandemic and Covid-19 lockdowns, Anthony Albanese is preparing to do whatever it takes to avoid a fourth term of Coalition rule.

The dumping of plans to reform negative gearing and a commitment to support legislated tax cuts for middle- and high-income earners delivers on Albanese’s pledge to abandon Bill Shorten’s election-losing strategy.

A crystallising moment for Albanese and deputy Richard Marles came after Josh Frydenberg used a post-budget speech to accuse Labor of standing in the way of tax cuts. Frydenberg’s attack on Labor, over a policy not yet finalised, had a coalescing effect inside a Labor caucus committed to not repeating mistakes made before the 2019 election.

Scott Morrison’s election victory was based on the dismantling of Shorten’s congested and scattergun policy approach, headlined by Labor’s promise to overhaul negative gearing and franking credits, and adopt ambitious climate change targets.

With Morrison under pressure to speed up the national vaccine rollout and captain Australia’s path out of the pandemic, Albanese understands the election will be fought over which side has the better Covid-19 economic recovery plan.

In a new age of debt and deficits, Albanese will adopt a small-target agenda to win back disillusioned Labor voters focused on jobs and productivity growth, boosting health and research investment, and backing a renewables-backed future economy.

Albanese, who recently visited a Queensland coalmine and offered bipartisan support in response to the rising threat of China, is on a mission to drag Labor closer to the centre.

Despite agitation from some in Albanese’s Left faction to amend, repeal or suspend the stage three tax cuts, an overwhelming majority of Labor MPs decided against delivering Morrison a pre-election gift. The decision was also pragmatic; few in shadow cabinet believed repealing or amending the tax cuts package would win support in the Senate.

Climate change targets remain the elephant in Labor’s party room. With Morrison finalising the Coalition’s net-zero emissions strategy ahead of the UN climate change conference in Glasgow, Albanese will wait until closer to election day before unveiling Labor’s major climate policies.

Albanese, who has adopted a policy of net-zero emissions by 2050, understands he must strike a balance to win seats in the mining states of Queensland and Western Australia. After almost a decade in the political wilderness, Labor is desperate to give itself a fighting chance knowing pandemic incumbency will not be easily overcome.

Albanese and Marles have drawn inspiration from British Labour prime minister Clement Attlee, who defeated World War II hero Winston Churchill at the 1945 UK election.

Their Attlee-inspired strategy is focused on convincing Australian voters Labor is better placed to lead the post-pandemic recovery and implement social and economic reforms. Similar to Attlee’s efforts in driving Britain’s post-war economy, Albanese and Marles have positioned Australia’s post-pandemic national reconstruction as their priority.

Morrison and Frydenberg understand personal popularity counts for little at a federal election. A successful vaccine rollout, effective containment of the virus and clear plan for economic and jobs growth, including the gradual reopening of international borders, will be crucial for the Coalition to win its fourth election.