Analysis shows by-elections prompted by Labor death deliver positive swings
Anthony Albanese is highlighting an average by-election swing in seats it’s held since the Hawke government — but other similar statistics are less favourable to his narrative.
Since WWII, by-elections prompted by the death of a Labor MP have on average delivered positive swings to the ALP.
The Australian’s analysis of the outcomes of federal by-elections since WWII has prompted questions over whether Anthony Albanese’s oft-quoted statistic – that the average by-election swing against the government in government-held seats since the start of the Hawke era is 7.1 per cent – is the best metric by which to gauge the outcome of Saturday’s Dunkley by-election.
The by-election in the outer southeastern Melbourne electorate, sparked by the death from cancer of second-term Labor MP Peta Murphy, has been billed as a crucial test for both the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton ahead of a general election due by May next year.
In a bid to manage expectations in the seat Labor holds with a 6.3 per cent margin, Mr Albanese has repeatedly said: “The average swing against the government, in a government-held seat, is 7 per cent.”
On Tuesday, he qualified the statement by adding this is the average swing “since the Hawke government”. But different qualifications all yield significantly lower swings against the government or the Labor Party – and in some cases swings towards them.
The average swing against the government in by-elections since the start of the Hawke government, where both major parties ran a candidate, was 5.4 per cent.
At post-WWII by-elections in government-held seats prompted by the death of a sitting MP (15 of whom were Coalition and only one Labor), the average swing against the government was 4.8 per cent.
In seats where a post-war by-election was prompted by a Labor MP’s death, the average swing was 1.2 per cent towards Labor – although Labor was in government on only one of those 16 occasions.
While Mr Albanese is warning of a large swing on Saturday, eight years ago, before the previous by-election caused by the death of an MP, Liberal Don Randall, he downplayed the possibility of a swing against the government.
“If you look historically, when there’s a by-election after the death of a sitting member, in this case a very popular one, Don Randall, it’s hard to get a swing. It’s not a normal by-election,” Mr Albanese said at the time.
The then Labor opposition did secure a swing against the government of 6.55 per cent, but it was not enough to defeat Liberal candidate and now frontbencher Andrew Hastie.
Ahead of Saturday, senior Liberal figures said they would “be disappointed” with anything less than a 2-3 per cent swing towards them at the by-election.
“There’s been a major change in sentiment since the Aston by-election,” one Victorian Liberal MP said. “We have a good shot at getting a swing towards us, but getting over that 6 per cent margin is a big ask. Anything we get about the 2-3 per cent mark will be good.”
Former Labor strategist turned Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras said while by-elections prompted by deaths had historically favoured the incumbent, the factor was less likely to have an impact in the current political environment.
“Historically, yes,” he said. “In today’s political environment, where there are very low levels of major party loyalty left in the electorate, no is the answer.”
Monash University emeritus professor of politics Paul Strangio said it was difficult to say how much impact Murphy’s death would have on voter sentiment.
“From all accounts she was a popular local member and she transformed the seat in a relatively short time into the margin falling into the category of being safe, so it wouldn’t surprise me that there will be an effect, but to put a figure on it I think is nigh on impossible,” Professor Strangio said.
One Labor source said voters in Dunkley were bringing up the former MP “all the time” and asking how the government would follow through on her promises.
“Peta was dearly loved … and much of that will be transferable,” the source said.
But a senior Labor strategist said the loss of Murphy could also be very damaging for Labor, arguing that she had swung a lot of people who did not traditionally vote Labor towards the party.
A Victorian Liberal MP said there was no doubt Murphy had been popular among voters, but the three months between her passing and the by-election may have weakened the sentiment.
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