ALP marginals at risk of falling to Liberals

Labor could lose its marginal seats of Dobell and Lindsay to the Liberal Party, according to ­internal seat polling.

Dobell Labor MP Emma McBride. Picture: Sue Graham

Labor would have lost its marginal seats of Dobell and Lindsay to the Liberals if a federal election had been held last weekend, according to ­internal polling.

Labor’s head office is fighting to retain the seats in an attempt to ensure Scott Morrison cannot win NSW seats to offset ­expected losses in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.

Leaked polling at the weekend had Labor behind 53-47 in the western Sydney seat of Lindsay, with former Carr and Iemma government minister Diane Beamer battling to pick up the seat won by Emma Husar at the 2016 election by just 1.1 per cent.

Party sources have told The Australian that Labor is behind in both seats but hopes to make up ground during the campaign as it did in the Liberal-held state seat of The Entrance during the state election campaign last month, which it feared losing but held.

Like The Entrance, Dobell is on the NSW central coast, and is held by Emma McBride, the daughter of former state minister Grant McBride, by 4.8 per cent.

Labor won a 4.9 per cent swing in the seat of Penrith (within Lindsay) at the state election against minister Stuart Ayres. Mr Ayres clung on to Penrith by just 1.3 per cent, mostly because of controv­ersy over new tolls on the WestConnex motorway.

The Nationals’ main concerns in NSW are Cowper, where independent Rob Oakeshott is likely to run again, and Kevin Hogan’s seat of Page on the north coast, where Mr Hogan is said to be marginally ahead. The Nationals hold Page by 2.3 per cent.

The Nationals would also be concerned about the seat of Parkes in the west, given the huge swing to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party in equivalent seats at the state election.

The Liberals are trying to win the Sydney seat of Wentworth from independent Kerryn Phelps and are fighting to retain Warringah, with former prime minister Tony Abbott under ­attack from Get Up-backed independent Zali Steggall. The Liberals are said to be ahead in marginals Reid, Gilmore and Robertson.

The Coalition has 74 seats in the parliament to Labor’s 69, with Labor needing a seven-seat gain to win majority government.

There is every chance the ­Coalition could finish with the ­status quo in NSW or even one or two seats ahead, but Labor ­believes it will win at least nine — and probably more — elsewhere in the country.

The government needs gains in NSW to offset those expected losses, especially in Victoria, and the impact of redistributions, which have moved some ­Coalition seats to nominal Labor status.

Labor hopes to retain the status quo in NSW, given the result in the state is expected to be more like 50-50 than the 52-48 reflected in the latest Newspoll, and the party already has 24 of the 47 seats in the state courtesy of wins in Macquarie, Lindsay and Macarthur in western Sydney at the 2016 poll.