ALP fears Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan in post-Andrews death spiral

Victorian Labor is deeply anxious that the Jacinta Allan government will fall at the next election unless it can dramatically turn around voter sentiment.

Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan. Picture: Getty Images

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Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan faces a political death spiral unless the economy starts to improve and the falling ALP primary vote can be turned around, according to party heavyweights.

Labor elders and strategists have become seriously worried about the collapse in support for the government just a year after Daniel Andrews left as premier.

Multiple senior figures have told The Weekend Australian that Ms Allan has about a year to ­resolve the emerging crisis or face either defeat or a push to replace her with a leader less associated with the Andrews years.

Opinion polls have recorded Labor’s primary vote falling to as low as 27 per cent – nearly 10 points lower than at the 2022 state election. Labor’s 2022 result was more than six points below the 2018 outcome. “It’s starting to look terminal,’’ a senior party figure said. “The best hope is that the Libs keep committing suicide.”

Another party figure said the key to Ms Allan’s fortunes would be whether or not the cost-of-living crisis continued to smash voters, feeding into anger about the state of the Victorian budget.

If this subsided, the figure said, it would taker enormous pressure off premiers who have little control over the national economy.

Victoria is on track to record state debt of nearly $190bn by the middle of 2028, compared with NSW’s $140bn.

Another strategist said health had become a key voter battleground after failed attempts to ­reform the system led to a $1.5bn taxpayer bailout because of the impact on opinion polling.

Ms Allan, who is vowing to keep the vexed $34bn first stage of the Suburban Rail Loop, is returning to Australia after a visually successful trade mission to India.

The SRL is rapidly becoming less popular for voters as they fight cost of living pressures and object to budget failures more broadly.

Then Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan and Premier Daniel Andrews during Question Time at Victorian Parliament last year. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Geraghty

The trade mission coincided with Victorian Liberal leader John Pesutto in the Federal Court facing defamation action from exiled MP Moira Deeming.

The legal action is seriously embarrassing for Mr Pesutto as the party’s dirty laundry is being aired after his decision last year to oust Ms Deeming over her attendance at a women’s rights rally that was gatecrashed by neo-Nazis.

If he loses the defamation ­action it is widely accepted that he will lose the leadership.

A senior Labor figure said the relentless Liberal infighting was helping motivate the Allan government, despite the economic climate, and that a mid-term slump was not government-ending.

Mr Pesutto’s backers have used Labor’s poor standing in the polls to argue that he should stay in the top job.

Another Labor figure said the decision to keep the SRL, which, if ever finished, would go from Melbourne’s southeast to the west, was bad for Ms Allan. However, there is no suggestion her leadership is under threat because “there would be no point changing this far out”.

“It could be different down the track if things are as bad as they seem. Not at the moment though,’’ the source said.

Ms Allan this week took aim at the federal government over ­attempts to cap international student numbers. “We say no to the federal government’s caps. Our new fund is going to help our unis and TAFEs find innovative ways to challenge them, and make our offering to international students even stronger,” the Herald Sun ­reported Ms Allan as saying. “We say yes to international students because they boost our economy and our global reputation, they support our small businesses, and they keep our multicultural state connected with the world.”