John Pesutto within striking distance as state’s preferred premier

Jacinta Allan’s position as the state’s preferred premier is continuing to slide, with Opposition Leader John Pesutto now just one point shy of her for the first time, as Labor’s primary vote also remains stuck behind the Coalition.

Victorians have also backed the case for the stalled rail link to the airport, preferring it over the Suburban Rail Loop (SRL), the state’s most expensive infrastructure project.

Support for Jacinta Allan as the state’s preferred premier has slipped as Labor continues to trail the Coalition in the polls. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

The findings are contained in an exclusive survey conducted by Resolve Strategic that reveals Labor’s primary vote has stagnated at 27 per cent – the same level it dropped to in July – which represents a 12-point drop in core support for the government in the past 12 months.

The Coalition’s primary support also remains stalled at 37 per cent, a 10-point lead over the government.

Although the survey does not include a two-party preferred result, it would likely be a close contest if an election were held today because Labor usually benefits from preference flows.

The survey comes as Allan approaches one year in the top job after a series of policy backflips for Labor, including walking away from plans to ban household gas, dumping a second supervised injecting room and reneging on a pledge to raise the age of criminal responsibility to 14.

Allan, who will head to India next week on her first overseas trip as premier, remains slightly ahead of Pesutto as Victoria’s preferred premier, but the gap has narrowed to its tightest margin in years.

A year ago, when Allan took over from Daniel Andrews, 38 per cent of voters preferred her as premier over Pesutto, who trailed on 19 per cent, giving Allan a 19-point lead. Since then, Allan’s personal support has steadily declined eight percentage points to 30, while Pesutto has gained 10 points to sit at 29 per cent.

Dr Zareh Ghazarian, a senior lecturer at Monash in politics, said the poll signalled a “big shift in Victorian politics”, with the latest survey suggesting the downward trend for the government “seemed to be sticking”.

“Labor appears to be in all sorts of electoral trouble, and it has coincided with Daniel Andrews leaving and the new premier taking over,” he said.

“Most concerning for the Labor Party is that the shift seems to have consolidated over the past three months. There is no longer any bouncing around; it’s four solid months of being behind.”

Resolve director Jim Reed told The Age the preferred leadership measure usually gives the incumbent an advantage because they are better known and have the power to act.

The federal auditor-general is this month set to release a report into the Albanese government’s $2.2-billion commitment to the SRL. Voters declared support for the project, but not when given the choice between the SRL and a rail link to the airport.

The survey found 43 per cent of Victorians supported the 90-kilometre orbital rail loop from Cheltenham to Werribee – down from 53 per cent at the last state election – compared to the 27 per cent who oppose it.

But when asked whether the SRL should be paused and money redirected to a rail line to the airport, 53 per cent of voters said they would prefer the government to finish Melbourne’s long-awaited link to Tullamarine. In that scenario, just 16 per cent gave preference to the SRL, while 19 per cent would prefer the government use the money for something else.

“Voters just want something positive to happen that improves their lives, so there’s decent support for the Suburban Rail Loop. However, if you give them a choice between that and an airport line, they opt for the latter,” said Reed.

As part of its research, Resolve Strategic asks the voters it polls to explain the reasons for their vote. Responses show that Labor supporters weren’t necessarily impressed with the government’s performance, but continued to back the party because they believed Allan had inherited a “poisoned chalice” and needed time – or because they consider themselves rusted-on supporters who don’t see the Coalition as a viable option.

“Voting Labor is the only way to keep the Liberals out,” one eligible voter said.

Most people intending to vote for the Coalition cited economic concerns as the major factor affecting their vote.

“The Labor Party is killing this state with taxes. You cannot run a business here any more,” another respondent claimed.

According to the findings, support for the Greens dropped slightly since July from 15 to 14 per cent, while support for independent candidates is also unmoved at 15 per cent. Overall the number of voters who said they’d look for an alternative to the major parties was 36 per cent, up from 29 per cent a year ago.

Reed said the latest result likely represented a protest vote against the government, with a significant number of voters parking their support with other candidates instead of overwhelmingly flocking to the opposition

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