With Steven Miles as premier, there ain’t no sunshine in Queensland for Labor

Incoming Queensland Premier Steven Miles and Anthony Albanese.

Anthony Albanese may have ridden a red wave of support in Western Australia and Victoria at the 2022 federal election but Queenslanders weren’t sold on the inner-Sydney left-wing warrior.

The Prime Minister went backwards in the sunshine state, falling from a paltry six seats to five after frontbencher Terri Butler lost Kevin Rudd’s former seat of Griffith to the Greens.

While state and federal elections are fought on different issues, the spectre of Queensland Labor being blasted out of office on October 26 next year has ALP MPs and strategists worried.

Left-wing powerbroker Steven Miles has 10 months to turn around a deeply unpopular Labor state government bogged down after three terms under Annastacia Palaszczuk.

At a federal level, if plunging support in the polls for Labor and Albanese isn’t reversed, there are growing concerns that not only will there be no 2025 election gains in Queensland to offset losses elsewhere but some incumbent MPs may struggle to hold their seats.

On election night in 2019, every sitting Labor MP in the state suffered primary vote swings against them. The seats of Lilley, vacated by Wayne Swan ahead of Bill Shorten’s disastrous second election, Blair and Moreton came close to falling to the LNP.

Anika Wells held on in Lilley by 1229 votes, Shayne Neumann clung on to Blair by 2321 votes and Graham Perrett won Moreton by 3448 votes. In the safe Labor seat of Rankin, Jim Chalmers copped an almost 8 per cent swing against him.

Neumann and Perrett – who have held their seats since Rudd’s 2007 election win – are under pressure to step aside ahead of the 2025 election, adding more uncertainty.

Albanese and his advisers should never forget the 2019 Queensland revolt, in which Labor secured a sole Senate position in its worst Upper House result since 1949.

The Greens vote in inner-Brisbane at the last election presents another headache for Albanese and Peter Dutton. Tapping into a growing pocket of progressive voters, the minor party claimed Griffith and the LNP’s Ryan and Brisbane.

Dutton must win as many seats as he can in Queensland, which has been a fortress for the LNP at recent elections. Albanese, whose voice referendum was rejected by almost 70 per cent of Queenslanders, is facing an uphill battle in the sunshine state.

To have any chance of forming government, Dutton needs to wrestle back some of the teal seats and win battleground seats from Labor. If Albanese loses seats, which is expected in WA, he must stem losses by picking up seats elsewhere.

Under a scenario where the Greens hold their four lower house seats, and potentially claim one or two Labor seats, Albanese faces the prospect of negotiating with a foe who has long-coveted his Sydney seat of Grayndler.