Plunging migration leads to first population decline in 40 years

Not since quarterly population data was first collected in 1981 has Australia’s total population fallen, until now.

 

Plunging overseas migration due to international travel restrictions has pushed Australia’s population lower for the first time since records began 40 years ago.

The nation’s population fell by 4200 people in the September quarter to 25,693,059, the first time there has been a decrease since the Australian Bureau of Statistics started collecting this quarterly data in 1981.

The annual population growth to September 2020 was 220,500, a rate of just 0.87 per cent, also the lowest since 1981.

Almost 35,000 more people left Australia than moved here in the September quarter. Over the year, net overseas migration fell by 156,900 people, or 64.8 per cent.

“Natural increase accounted for 61.4 per cent of annual population growth, while net overseas migration accounted for the remaining 38.6 per cent,” ABS ­demography director Phil Browning said.

“Over this 12-month period, there were 299,500 births and 164,100 deaths registered in Australia. Natural increase during this period was 135,400 people, a decrease of 3.8 per cent from the previous year.”

While the national population hasn’t yet seen a year-on-year ­decrease, international travel ­restrictions have continued.

“The last time we saw population decline was the year to ­December 1916 during World War I when the population declined by 51,500, or 1 per cent,” Mr Browning said.

Overall, the natural increase in Australia’s population in the year to September was 135,400 people, down by 5400 (3.8 per cent) from the year before.

Much of that decrease was in the September quarter, which was down by 4600 from the previous quarter.

Victoria accounted for almost 3500 of that national fall, the state’s natural increase down from 9598 in the June quarter to 6165 in the September quarter.

While babies born in the September quarter would have been conceived prior to the outbreak of COVID-19 early in 2020, it raises the question of whether parents were leaving the state during its long second lockdown to give birth.

Comparing the states’ population growth rates, Queensland and Western Australia had the highest for the year to September, growing 1.3 per cent and 1.2 per cent respectively. NSW (0.6 per cent) and Victoria (0.7 per cent) were both below the national average.

Queensland’s population growth was driven by interstate migration, primarily from NSW. It gained more than 27,000 people from other states.

The only other state to gain through interstate migration was Tasmania. NSW lost more than 20,000 people over the year to other states.