NSW election: Chinese-Australians desert Liberals

Analysis reveals voters of Chinese background deserted the Liberals as they did in the federal election. In the top ten seats by people of Chinese heritage, the Liberal’s primary vote has slumped by double the statewide rate.

Tom Lam, a fabric store worker in Hurstville, said before the election that economic management was his top voting priority. Picture: Noah Yim/The Australian

Chinese-Australians deserted the Liberal Party in Saturday’s NSW election, analysis of votes counted so far shows.

In the 10 seats home to the largest Chinese heritage populations, the Liberals have so far seen a 9.3 percentage point slump in their primary vote, double the 4.7 percentage point swing statewide.

This follows similar results in the 2022 federal election, in which the Liberal Party sustained a 6.6 percentage point swing against it in the country’s top 15 seats by Chinese ancestry, almost double the 3.7 percentage point swing against the party nationally.

“Rebuilding the party’s relationship with the Chinese community must be a priority,” the party’s post-election review said.

This analysis of NSW votes used electoral boundaries from 2021, before redistribution, but nonetheless paints a grim picture for the Liberal Party.

Then NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet pre-polling with Craig Chung in Kogarah. Picture: NCA Newswire/Monique Harmer

Unsuccessful Liberal candidate for Kogarah Craig Chung, himself of Chinese background, said the Liberal Party should be less focused on factional battles to make up lost ground with diverse voters.

“There’s a broad lack of cultural diversity in our parliaments and perhaps the Liberal Party needs to look more at preselecting community Liberals, rather than factional Liberals,” he told The Australian.

Mr Chung lost preselection in the seat of Ryde to 28-year-old former mayor Jordan Lane,
who previously worked as a Liberal staffer.

Mr Chung was then nominated to stand in Kogarah in late February, just a month before the election.

In Ryde, which has the second-highest share of Chinese-background residents in the state at 30.1 per cent, the Liberals are facing a 4.9 percentage point primary vote slump and a 9.6 percentage point two-party-preferred slump. Not yet called, Labor candidate Lyndal Howison is ahead of Mr Lane.

Another of the high Chinese-background seats was Parramatta, which in the 2021 Census was home to 22,569 people of Chinese heritage, or 20.1 per cent of the population. The Liberal Party is, as of the weekend’s count, seeing a massive 13.6 percentage point swing against it in the seat.

Though the seat has not yet been called, it looks unlikely that retiring Liberal member Geoff Lee will be replaced by fellow party member Katie Mullens – it is more likely to go to Labor’s Donna Davis.

Other seats in the category included Drummoyne in Sydney’s inner-west, which has so far seen a 9.8 per cent swing against the Liberals, a seat where 15.7 per cent of residents are of a Chinese background, or Auburn in western Sydney with a 7.8 percentage point swing against the Liberals, a seat where 23.3 per cent of residents are of Chinese background.

The result is consistent with earlier reporting that suggested a slump for the Liberals among voters of Chinese descent.